Impeachment fever has taken over Washington, D.C., but the business of governing is attempting to proceed around town.
The big news next week will be the arrival of a high-level Chinese trade negotiating team. Figure the market will hang on every word, sorry, make that tweet, that comes either from the President or the Chinese delegation. The latter is less adept at tweeting— so far, of course.
However, the unrest in Hong Kong poses a wild card risk to the talks as it will be hard for the U.S. to stay mum if protesters there start to be hurt or killed. The Chinese are highly unlikely to help Trump with trade talks if he interferes in what they consider a domestic matter.
That said, both sides have incentives to reach a mini-deal that could help President Trump secure his support in rural America with some Chinese purchases of agricultural products and the US giving needed licenses to Chinese technology giant Huawei Technologies. Talks are scheduled for next Thursday and Friday.
Also on the trade front, the World Trade Organization handed down a final ruling favoring the U.S. in its complaints against the European Union over subsidies to Airbus (EADSY). The decision allows the US to place tariffs on EU imports and, surprise, surprise, the tariff-happy Trump Administration responded with over $7 billion of tariffs on EU goods ranging from clothing to cheese.
The EU is expecting a similar ruling in their favor by the WTO focused on aid by state governments to help Boeing (BA). The EU has threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. Both sides will start talks in the coming months to try to tamp down the tensions. And the tariff beat goes on.
An interesting side story to watch in the coming weeks is whether or not the Trump Administration has any interest in working with Congressional Democrats to demonstrate that government business can be conducted during the impeachment investigation. Two areas have been the focus of some initial discussions: approval of NAFTA 2, or USMCA as it is now known, and action aimed at lowering the price of prescription drugs.
Time will tell if the passion of impeachment blocks all other business. Congress and the President will need to take some action on government spending prior to the next deadline of November 19.
Finally, the weak ISM data that came out this week likely points to another 25bps cut by the Fed at their end of the month meeting. For more see pages 1 and 6.
Figure: Top Trump Tweets