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With housing weakening, investors bringing out their “2008 hammers” again. Cognitive bias in full force. 2H rally intact.

Sentiment among our clients has not changed much. The plurality of our clients remain skeptical and see a multitude of problems ahead (see discussion below). But our view remains that we see a 2H rally leading to new highs for the S&P 500. We believe this will be led by FAANG/Large-cap Technology and Growth. And while we like Energy for next 2-5 years, we see headwinds unless oil recovers strongly.

  • This tweet shared by @krugermacro Alex is hysterical
  • But actually reflects our view
  • Inflation was the single biggest headwind for markets in 2022 and the inflection is the key to market recovery
  • hence, our inflation dashboard remains an important part of the toolkit
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Chicken wing prices fall -62% from peak to below pre-pandemic = deflation. Is inflation not as “sticky” as many fear?

Market Rebellion @MarketRebels posted this tweet below quoting NBC News:

  • chicken wing prices have dropped below pre-pandemic levels

This is outright deflation. Prices falling to 2019 levels is a 3-year decline.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

In fact, chicken wing prices are down 62% from their peak in 2021.

  • yup, down -62%
  • that is not “cooling” inflation
  • that is deflation
The video in this report is only accessible to members

August Philly Fed better than expected on activity + price

And the Aug...

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