Positivity rates in NYC rolling over, a precursor to cases peaking in NYC and NY state…
Positivity rates in NYC are rolling over. This is shown below and if one looks carefully, you can see this positivity rate falling.

  • NYC daily cases 7D avg flattening
  • NYC positivity rates rolling over
  • NY state positivity rate flattening
  • NY state cases still rising

To me, this is the first sign that Omicron is peaking in the NYC metro and NY state area. We will have a better sense over the next few days and we are going to watch for the obvious signs of a sustained downturn in positivity rates, along with a falling in daily cases.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

…surge in NYC cases lasted 23 days
The surge in NYC cases started 12/9/2021, and potentially peaked on 1/1/2022 (see below). This would be about 23 days from start of surge to the peak.

  • there is no evidence yet that cases are peaking
  • positivity rate does look like it has peaked
  • the 23 days of surge is consistent with the surge seen in South Africa
  • and reflects the relatively higher speed of surges seen with Omicron
The video in this report is only accessible to members
USA positivity rate soars to 29% matching levels seen March 2020In another showing of the transmissibility of Omicron, USA positivty rate surged to 29% (7D avg). And of course, with a positivity rate past 10%, it does suggest that testing...

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