COVID-19 trends are still showing consistent improvement...
The September jobs report came out Friday Morning and was disappointing at the headline. There were more reasons for optimism under the surface. We think the miss is more understandable when you consider that millions of people currently must stay home to take care of those with COVID. A close examination of labor markets also show that Travel and Leisure is not so significant for the wider economy given its proportion of total income.

- The latest COVID daily cases came in at 94,993, down -8,942 vs 7D ago
- The positivity rate continues to fall as it is down to 6.1% and has clearly fallen since its recent high of nearly 10%

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The video in this report is only accessible to members

...Next surge in COVID-19 will be "led" by a rise in positivity rates
And looking at positivity rates by region, we can see the generalized decline across all regions.  Something self-evident: the next COVID-19 wave will be driven by a rise in positivity rates, along with cases.  Thus, the continued and sustained move downwards is encouraging.

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INFLATION: Oil could rise a further 40% before it even begins to impact demandFor those in the "peak everything" camp, $80 oil is likely a key factor for expecting global economic growth to cool substantially in 2022.  On...

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