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Since closing at an all-time high of 4,480 four days ago, the S&P 500 has been lurching violently lower. Based on our multiple conversations over the past week, it seems the wall of worry had grown to a level that was beyond the investor's appetite for risk. Stocks have been internally weakening for some time, so the sell-off on Thursday morning was a continuation of the internal turmoil within markets.
...But panic showed up in volatility markets, which if it reverses, is a sign that "bad news" is baked inAs Tom DeMark likes to say, "markets bottom on bad news, not good," meaning stocks bottom when sellers are done selling. And when there are no sellers left, stocks begin to rise.
Selling is not the only way investors seek to reduce risk, they can also buy volatility -- that is, investors can neutralize positions by betting on a near-term rise in risk. Thus, one way to identify "sellers are done selling" is:
- when spot VIX surpasses VIX futures with a future settlement
- compare, for instance, VIX spot level vs VIX futures 4M forward
Look below, you can see within the session this am, the spot VIX (dark blue) surpassed 4M VIX (red line).
- it was a "touch" because at the close, VIX spot settled below VIX 4M futures
- this same "touch" took place on 7/19
- on 7/19, the S&P 500 bottomed
- and rallied 6% over the next 12 trading sessions
Thus, if Thursday's touch is analogous to 7/19, Thursday was the selling crescendo. Not at the close, but in the morning session.


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