We sent out an alert earlier this week about a pretty dramatic improvement in the case trend. The 7D delta took a major down leg with cases collapsing across several states in particular. Michigan and New York both had drops greater than 1,000 in their 7D delta which is encouraging. This trend is so far continuing and the rate of vaccinations compared to new cases is at about 45 to 1. This is one of the most important numbers and it has remained consistently high.

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The key question is whether this is just noise or if it is a genuine collapse. Given that the United States has recently eclipsed the level of 40% vaccine penetration which proved a turning point in Israel, we are venturing that this is the beginning of some serious downward action with regards to COVID-19. If the US were to match Israel’s path with regard to vaccinations and new infections then we would be at 8,500 cases a day by June.

This is exciting news and if it is true we think that the natural implication is that Epicenter will rise. If there is truly a downside breakout occurring in the case data then Epicenter, which has lagged as COVID progress has stalled, should take-off. Travel, Hotels and Airlines should be big beneficiaries. We also like Epicente...

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