After surging to 13,171, the 7D delta fell slightly to 7,216 on Tuesday. Michigan remains the biggest contributor to the 7D delta surge and reported over 5,000 cases on Tuesday (vs. 3,576 7D ago). As, shown below the daily cases (7D avg) in Michigan has surged to the highest level since mid-December.

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Despite the problematic developments in cases, US hospitalization is still rolling over. After all this time, we may forget that the reason for lockdowns is to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Due to the progress in vaccine penetration this outcome seems less and less likely. The aggregate level of patients who are currently hospitalized has fallen significantly from the wave 3 peak.

Encouragingly, 41 states are now near or above 60% combined penetration (vaccines + infections). SD, ND and RI are now above 80% combined penetration. Collectively, these 41 states are approaching about 80% of the US population. As the below chart highlights the US is seeing impressive and steady progress toward vaccine penetration.

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The bottom line is that vaccination progress continues to outpace infections. This should increase when J&J supplies become widely available. The ...

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