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Case Trends Positive, Market-Chop Hides Cyclical Rotation

I would like to start this note by offering my thoughts and prayers to all those impacted by the current severe weather. Overall, trends in the US regarding COVID-19 are positive particularly regarding daily cases which are down 33,466 from a week ago. However, with the vast interruptions in testing due to weather there might be some under-reporting occurring.

Another complication is that it seems about 7% of total US cases are new variants. Given that some are more virulent and contagious, and that vaccines are less effective against the variants, it is a possibility that this could reverse positive progress on cases. Right now though, one of the most encouraging signs we’ve seen for a while just occurred. As Nate Silver pointed out, the daily positivity rate in the US has been below 5% for two consecutive days.

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