Coming out of the first week of December, overall trends in both financial markets and even macro are mostly positive. And despite COVID-19 still expanding in Wave 3, albeit at a much slower pace, financial markets are taking this in stride. And I see multiple tailwinds for risk assets and epicenter stocks in particular. More on this below.
On the COVID-19 front, Wave 3 is still raging across the US and our base case remains that it will not peak until Feb 2021 -- essentially following the forecast of the IHME (healthdata.org) and the work of Dr. Chris Murray.
But at the same, there are some characteristics of Wave 3 that we are watching. Wave 3 swept across parts of the US previously unscathed in Wave 1 and 2, including many parts of CA and TX. It was initially led by 6 states, WI, IL, ID, ND, SD, UT, or WIINSU. And within WIINSU daily cases are rolling over.
So here is the key question -- will Wave 3 peak when the Wave 1 and Wave 2 'unscathed' regions rollover?See the red line states in the chart nearby? Those are daily cases per 1mm for WIINSU. They are rolling over and the surge is now in Wave 1 and, to a lesser extent, Wave 2 states. And interestingly, when looking at county-level diffusion data, we see a similar picture. The diffusion (or % of counti...