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Stocks Down 0.5% on Week; Stimulus Should be “when not if”

One of the top market rules for me, maybe even "rule #1," is never to try to impose my views on the markets.  And perhaps, it is more useful to try to decipher the message from market behavior.  If I had to describe equities over the past week, they seemed to have been treating fiscal stimulus as a binary event. Regardless of the fact that this seems more of a “when not if” question to me. More on this below.

On the COVID-19 front, the trend in daily cases continued rising this week. This has been the case for the past few weeks and I see two major takeaways: (i) US cases could reach 70,000 within 2 weeks, matching the July highs, (ii) Because the spread is primarily in 11 states, we might be nearing peak velocity in those states.

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