COVID-19 Case Trends Remain Positive; Market Reaches ATH

This has been a very good week for US COVID-19 case data. After all, the case figures this week cement that the trend is downwards for organic case growth. But we also think that markets will start to shift their thinking about COVID-19 from “change in cases” to “level of cases.” That is, it will start to focus more on the question of “when is COVID-19 under control” in the US.

The benchmark many cite is a positivity rate <10%, but the current rate is 6.5% and it does not seem like COVID-19 is under control. I think a better measure is daily cases per 1mm residents, which is currently ~120 per 1mm (40,000 per day). Europe did not open until daily cases fell to 30-50 per 1mm, which in the US is equivalent to 9,900-16,500 total daily cases. Cases need to fall another 60% from here. At this pace of change, we could be there in a few weeks.

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