There are recent market factors that are giving global investors some pause about the durability of this nearly 11-year old bull market, and I can sympathize somewhat.
However, please don’t call me a bear. I think that despite the potential for an up to 10% or so correction, the bull beat will go on.
Nevertheless, volatility in equity markets have risen sharply this week (with the VIX “fear index) pushing above 18 now) as the increasing apprehension around the coronavirus outbreak, coupled with mixed GDP visibility due to Boeing’ s (BA) MAX 737 production woes, are creating broad de-risking (U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield falling and high yield spreads widening, etc. I recommend staying defensive with tech and healthcare sectors.
And as I noted earlier in the week, this does not feel like a reflexive 2%-3% drawdown that 'needs to be bought' but rather, this seems like the start of a broader correction.
Hence, the character of the market is changing from the relentless buying since October, to one where we need to 'wait for the initial bottom' before becoming more aggressive.
POINT 1: PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS – 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE OR 100 DMA IS WHERE I SEE INITIAL BOTTOMS