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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy

Tom Lee's Equity Strategy

Today’s note is a recap from our webinar with Tom DeMark, founder of DeMark Analytics and Symbolik. com. Tom DeMark has gained a large following over his >50 years on Wall Street, having developed many key market timing tools used today. He is a longtime...

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S&P 500 waterfall decline of 16% (5 mos) seen only 18 times since 1940 = signs closer to end of selloff

Fed policy is already “biting hard” after 3 hikes—on the margin, 3 more reasons inflation pressures might be peaking Stocks continued their waterfall decline this past week, amplified by concerns of systemic risk as the crypto market took a gut punch. Many now believe a “hard landing” is baked in...

Treachery Is Fully Evident Markets, But Risk-Reward Is Looking Attractive for Growth Stocks

It's been very painful and I think it's clear that not only are equity markets nervous and edgy, but they're hyper, hyper sensitive to inflationary data. Whether it's FOMC meeting or even today's payroll numbers, it's really about getting some comfort that inflation is breaking. From our perspective, it's been...

Markets Have Terrible Week, But Risk/Reward of FAANG Beginning to Look Attractive

I am a huge Nicholas Cage fan. Some of his earliest movies had an influence in my youth — Peggy Sue Got Married, Moonstruck, Leaving Las Vegas, the Rock, Con-air, etc. Even some of my all-time favorite movies are Nicholas Cage movies like Family Man, or It Could Happen to...

2022 Is a “Pie In The Face” Kind of Year, Thoughts on Netflix

If someone asked me to describe 2022 so far, it is a “pie in the face” year. The world is facing several key turning points (inflation, supply chains, monetary policy, war) and these combined effects are impacting equities, bonds and commodities in a way not seen in the past 30...

3 Reasons Why Stocks Might Be Strengthening, Bond Market Seems to Be “Changing Its Mind”

Yesterday’s CPI report is an example of this. The CPI Core (ex-food and energy) was +0.3% month over month, improving over Feb’s +0.5% and the best reading since September 2021.the rate of change is slowingfor reasons we discuss below, this 1st of 3 waves of episodic inflation is peaking _…USED...

“Finkle Is Einhorn?!”- Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Explained, Granny Shots Updated

We pay heed to the market adage “don’t fight the Fed.” While Dudley is no longer a Fed member, many believe he is communicating a message from the Fed. But here is the thing:it seems wrong headed to argue thatthe primary way for Fed to transmit its monetary policy of...

Markets Are Whispering Bottom, Yield Curve Inversion Likely Through

So, it is obvious that the macro environment is uncertain. Contrary to consensus views, FSInsight had warned of a treacherous 1H2022 in our 2022 outlook (published in December 2021), but this is actually tracking slightly worse than we expected. Yet, in the face of this, the S&P 500 is down...

Markets Continue To Show Resilience, Evidence of Potential Strong Forward Returns Is Ample

While consensus remains bearish and pundits warn of dangers ahead, we still lean “bullish” against consensus With each passing day, when 1H2022 is characterized as “treacherous,” it is increasingly obvious. Think about the threats to equities:Bond market is hawkishly confused (messed up yield curve) and bullying FedFed officials are going...

Institutional Investors Positioned for Recession. Where Is the Fed Put?

Perhaps the “darkest” report is the following headline, shared by @DougKass on twitter from another sellside firm.on March 4, 2022this firm placed 10% odds of a “civilization ending nuclear war”yup, 10% To me, this is a bottom tick of market sentiment. Unless, of course, the world is hurtling towards nuclear...

In The Two Weeks Since Start Of This “Global Shakeup” a Few Winners Are Emerging. PLUS: VIX -5.5% + S&P 500 Down 1%=Often Bottom

Take a look at the relative performance of regional stocks vs MSCI ACWI (all world index). Of the 7 indices below:USA and Latin America clearly outperformingEurope and EM have been massive underperformersLatin America outperformance is due mainly to commodity exposureRussia equities have imploded, yet the value of Russia commodity infrastructure...