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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy

Tom Lee's Equity Strategy

For the past 45 days, we think the singular factor impacting financial markets, in my opinion, has been the course of the Delta COVID-19 variant.   The transmissibility and potential ability to evade existing vaccinations has added considerable uncertainty for investors.  From a sector perspective, the last 45 days have been very challenging.  This is where...

Delta Variant Apex Likely Here, COVID-19 Seasonality and signal From Bitcoin Suggest August Could Be “Risk-On”
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Bear Arrives; Markets Want to See U.S COVID-19 Case Peak

I asked for a sanity check last week since the S&P 500 index was selling at a 16 P/E and Treasuries at over a 100 P/E but the response was simple panic. Indeed, in the frenzied and sharply downward trading last week in reaction to the spread of coronavirus, or...

Delta Variant Spreading Quickly, Key Metrics Reversing

The Delta variant is essentially correctly viewed as “pandemic of the unvaccinated”For the most part, we continue to view the COVID-19 Delta variant as more “bark than bite” in USA.  Meaning, while there may be short-term hysteria about the surge in USA cases due to Delta variant, we do not...

Delta Variant Spreading Quickly, Key Metrics Reversing

Current Trends — COVID-19 cases: – Daily cases 28,517 vs 23,058 7D ago, up +5,459 – Daily cases ex-FL 28,517 vs 18,218 7D ago, up +10,299 – 7D positivity rate 5.1% vs 3.3% 7D ago – Hospitalized patients 19,327, up +20% vs 7D ago – Daily deaths 266, up +22%...

Delta Variant Growth Scare Likely Near Peak, Epicenter Likely To Lead If Rates Rise

Summary – We are making a significant reversal concerning the direction of Interest Rates. – Importantly, we are not changing any of our sector calls. We are still OW FAANG and N Financials. The healthcare situation may continue to deteriorate, but we continue to see strong protection from vaccines and...

Delta Variant Likely Gives Market Transitory Panic, YE Target Increased to 4,600

Summary – COVID-19 case trends have deteriorated as the Delta variant rises proportionally to existing strains. – Our central case is now that 10-15 states (those with lowest vaccination rates) will see another parabolic rise in cases in the next few weeks. – Importantly, we do not see a high...

Eye on COVID-19, Trifecta of Positive Catalysts Suggest Rally

Summary – COVID-19 case trends have appeared to tick up and the 7D delta has been positive for two consecutive days, we will watch very closely for market implications. – 16 out of 50 states are showing a rise in cases vs. 7D ago. This could be noise or ‘true-up’ caused by delayed reporting but […]

Generational Factors to Drive Inflation? Throwaway Week Paves Way for Move Higher

Summary – COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death, and positivity rate trend remains positive in US, UK showing problematic developments. – The events this week caused turmoil but ultimately they increase the level of our bullishness with regard to equities. Hyper-inflation fears receding is a good thing. – We do believe inflation...

Course Correcting: Financials UW to N, FAANG from UW to OW

– COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death, and positivity rate trend remains positive – The strength of markets in the face of hot inflation market sends us a key signal about what will fuel rally to 4,400 by mid-2021 higher – We believe the market’s reaction to inflation numbers will benefit tech...

Asset Heavy Benefits from Demographic Destiny, COVID Trends Remain Positive in US

The global picture for COVID-19 is improving as daily cases are falling across the US, Western Europe and much of Asia. However, India and Pakistan cases are at alarming levels despite being significantly down from their heights. Latin American cases have also been creeping up and are now at 150,000...

Energy Stocks Have Major Implied Upside, Sideline Cash Grows

Vaccine “lotteries” appear to be incentivizing vaccinations and are gaining favor in several states. States have been trying to boost vaccine adoption after a recent slow-down. Given that vaccines are being shown to be effective, increasing vaccine penetration boosts the overall immunity of a community. Ohio was the first when...

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