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Tom Lee's Equity Strategy

Tom Lee's Equity Strategy

Labor cost is a key question, but 6 supply reasons we see as transitoryThe focus of this note is primarily focused on the shortage of workers.  Earlier this week, my co-founder John Bai and I met with DJ, a portfolio manager in NYC, and her...

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Incrementally, The Case Is Strengthening For a Year-End Rally. Fears Easing of Dual Issues of “Supply-Chain Glitches” + Vaccines= Shifting Away From “Ping Pong”

FDA advisers endorse Moderna booster Yesterday, the FDA outside panel of advisers endorsed Moderna’s request for a booster shot. This was largely expected but still an incremental positive. After all, there was a modicum of risk, and more importantly, the combination of booster vaccines and COVID-19 therapeutics (Merck pill) are...

“Demand Destruction” Is Overblown: Why $80 Oil Today Equals $110 Oil in 2014

COVID-19 trends are still showing consistent improvement…The September jobs report came out Friday Morning and was disappointing at the headline. There were more reasons for optimism under the surface. We think the miss is more understandable when you consider that millions of people currently must stay home to take care...

Entering October With A “Cluster Of Worries” But Stocks Are So Oversold That We See Reason For Upside

COVID-19 is moving to the northern US states… but overall trends positiveCOVID-19 overall remains in retreat in the US, evidenced best by looking at the 7D delta chart below.  And aside from the distortions associated with Labor Day, we see that the delta in cases are consistently negative and thus,...

Not Every Default Is a Lehman Event- Cognitive Bias Was on Full Display This Week

Maslow’s hammer –> careful of cognitive biasEquity markets around the world were roiled by news of the Evergrande impending debt default. And coupled with concerns ahead of the Sept FOMC + potential US govt shutdown + potential debt ceiling, and this made for a deep descent in stocks on the...

Survey Shows Consumers “Panicked” About Delta Variant Suggesting Negative Shocks Are Transitory

Trends in USA COVID-19 cases are still distorted by holidays, but showing steady improvements…The surge and scourge of Delta-variant runs its course in specific states but the overall USA cases don’t necessarily capture this because other states are seeing a surge. And case data is distorted by the Labor Day...

White House Unveils “Hammer” 6 Step Plan, Escalating Steps To Contain COVID-19

6 step plan… logical escalation of protocols needed, without over-reachThursday evening, the White House unveiled a comprehensive 6 step plan to escalate efforts to combat the COVID-19 surge in the US. Elements of the plan are clearly controversial, as it touches upon two “flash points” of vaccination mandates and mask...

We See Multiple Reasons For A September Rally, But The Key Is “Bad News Is Good News”

Probably better to expect an “expiration date” for many of the COVID-19 extraordinary measuresIn our conversations with clients this week, one of the questions that has come up is how many of the pandemic-driven changes wrought in our World are permanent or only extraordinary. Among the key questions: – work from...

Gloom From Kabul, Energy Leads Gains This Week—We Think More Gains Are To Come For Our Favorite Sector In 2H2021

American casualties in Kabul — a forceful and necessary response coming ISIS-K claims responsibility for the attack at Kabul airport, killing 11 Americans and more than 50 Afghanistan nationals. This is a needless and unjust tragedy, particularly since Americans were evacuating the nation. This story dominated media headlines Thursday. Our...

Half-Full, Versus Half Empty

Since closing at an all-time high of 4,480 four days ago, the S&P 500 has been lurching violently lower.  Based on our multiple conversations over the past week, it seems the wall of worry had grown to a level that was beyond the investor’s appetite for risk. Stocks have been...

US Cases Appear To Be Peaking This Week, Next 7 Days Key

Recall, the IHME forecast USA infections would peak Wednesday, 8/11. And as the daily cases below show, this seems to be the case. The issue with this data is that several states, FL and Nebraska, have lagged data, so tireless Ken uses CDC data, which is lagged as well but updated...

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