Wed June 14, 2023

Divergences Likely to Persist

Well, it seems that the ball game is over, and the bulls have clearly won.  Inflation is dead, the Fed should be easing anytime soon, the expected recession has been...

Wed April 12, 2023

WTI Crude’s push to new 2023 highs should benefit Energy

Wednesday’s roller-coaster ride post CPI report failed to answer many questions on the near-term direction for US stock indices, and movement lower under the ongoing uptrend line will be necessary...

Wed July 13, 2022

Updating Granny Shots. Is June the last "really bad" CPI, enabling Fed reaction function shift from "expeditious" to "measured"

The story for much of 2022 has been that of markets and Fed trying to keep up with surging inflation. And as the chart below simply illustrates, for much of...

Fri June 24, 2022

LEAD VS LAG: Case strengthening inflationary drivers peaked ("lead"), even if CPI remains elevated ("lag") = market perception lagging

Incoming data this week has pointed to a pronounced softening of economic momentum globally, and this has pushed commodity prices lower and similarly pushed down interest rates. And this has...

Fri April 8, 2022

Stocks Struggle in The First Week of the Second Quarter

The market had a down week in the face of a hawkish tone from several Fed speeches and events that make it look like the bond market may have been...

Fri April 8, 2022

“Finkle Is Einhorn?!”- Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Explained, Granny Shots Updated

We pay heed to the market adage “don’t fight the Fed.” While Dudley is no longer a Fed member, many believe he is communicating a message from the Fed. But...

Wed April 6, 2022

Updating "Granny Shots" adding 7 names, deleting 9 -- seasonals favor inflection in "Pure Growth" + further upside in "Quality Defensive"

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: Monday SKIP TUESDAY Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: UPDATING "GRANNY SHOTS" ADDING 7 NAMES, DELETING 9 -- SEASONALS FAVOR INFLECTION IN "PURE...

Fri January 14, 2022

Markets Have Another Choppy Week and Rotation Continues, Financials Have Rough Friday After Big Bank Earnings

The S&P 500 closed at 4,662.85 down from 4677.03 . The VIX settled at $19.19  and didn’t get too far above $20 this week.Powell’s testimony assuaged markets somewhat, but they...

Fri January 14, 2022

Omicron turning COVID into flu (rest of year) per Bill Gates. Bond market priced in a March hike, so stocks need to get used to this

I WILL BE ON VACATION FROM 1/17 TO 1/25, A LATE CHRISTMAS VACATIONWE WILL STILL PUBLISH OUR COVID-19 DAILY COMMENTARY (THANKS TIRELESS KEN)MARKET COMMENTARY WILL RESUME 1/26 STRATEGY: OMICRON TURNING...

Tue October 26, 2021

Delta-plus is a non-issue in USA, so far... Energy + Bitcoin most logical YE strategies

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: DELTA-PLUS IS A NON-ISSUE IN USA, SO FAR… ENERGY + BITCOIN MOST LOGICAL YE STRATEGIES...

Mon October 25, 2021

3 anecdotal signs COVID-19 might be closer to "endemic" than consensus believes = positive bias. Re-balance Granny Shots --> +13 adds, -9 deletes. YTD outperforms +404bp

The 7D avg in cases is down to 69,331 and as we noted last week, this is looking to be on track for 50,000 by the end of the month. ...

Fri July 30, 2021

Delta variant apex + USA COVID-19 seasonality + Bitcoin "signal" argues August could be "risk-on"

Tireless Ken and team compiled some data and as you can see, since 1928, August is not generally a great month for stocks. The win-ratio is low at 54% overall....