Ticker Appearances
Fed Watch
Post-FOMC, We See Higher Probabilities for March Cut Than Consensus
On Wednesday, January 31, the Federal Open Markets Committee announced that it would keep its target-rate range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Just as with its decisions...
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- bond markets slightly fearful of contagion (other banks)
- Odds of a March cut rose materially roughly 50% vs 25% a day ago
- Fed cuts fix many of regional bank problems
First Word
ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.
We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB yesterday and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below...
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First Word
Strength in stocks YTD is explained by better fundamentals + drop in VIX. And now 26 groups are in solid positive trend (vs 4 a month ago). Next week remains one of most critical of 2023.
The upside breakout in equities puts the S&P 500 near 4,300, a key round number and near the August 2022 highs (4,325). Our base remains...
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First Word
"Buy the dip" regime back since March 23, 2023 as analysis shows S&P 500 regain 2% losses less than 1 month, reversing "sell the rip" regime of 2022. Stick with FAANG, Industrials and tactically Regional banks.
NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (ABOVE): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS _We publish on a 3-day a week schedule:_ SKIP MONDAY <-- TRAVELING _SKIP...
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First Word
FAANG default risk (CDS) less US govt = more reason to OW (even now). Regional banks see DeMark "13" buy setup = stick along with OW "temporary Fed put"
NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (ABOVE): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS _We publish on a 3-day a week schedule:_ SKIP MONDAY (traveling) _SKIP...
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Fed Watch
Post-FOMC, We See Higher Probabilities for March Cut Than Consensus
On Wednesday, January 31, the Federal Open Markets Committee announced that it would keep its target-rate range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Just as with its decisions...
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First Word
ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.
We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB yesterday and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below...
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FSI Pro, FSI Macro
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First Word
Strength in stocks YTD is explained by better fundamentals + drop in VIX. And now 26 groups are in solid positive trend (vs 4 a month ago). Next week remains one of most critical of 2023.
The upside breakout in equities puts the S&P 500 near 4,300, a key round number and near the August 2022 highs (4,325). Our base remains...
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First Word
"Buy the dip" regime back since March 23, 2023 as analysis shows S&P 500 regain 2% losses less than 1 month, reversing "sell the rip" regime of 2022. Stick with FAANG, Industrials and tactically Regional banks.
NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (ABOVE): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS _We publish on a 3-day a week schedule:_ SKIP MONDAY <-- TRAVELING _SKIP...
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First Word
FAANG default risk (CDS) less US govt = more reason to OW (even now). Regional banks see DeMark "13" buy setup = stick along with OW "temporary Fed put"
NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (ABOVE): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS _We publish on a 3-day a week schedule:_ SKIP MONDAY (traveling) _SKIP...
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First Word
Potentially "hot" April CPI report, testing height Fed pause bar...but so far 2023 is a "game of inches" where bulls gaining. Even global GDP creeping higher.
NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (BELOW): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS Market direction in 2023 feels like a "game of inches" (Al Pacino...
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