Wed June 28, 2023

NASDAQ 100 index set for a record 1st Half performance

To watch my guest appearance on "The Compound and Friends" with Josh Brown and Michael Batnick (6/23), click here. To watch my interview on Fox Business this morning (6/28), click...

Mon January 23, 2023

A Fed "pause" in spring is pregnant pause and a pretext for a substantial easing of financial conditions. Supports why stocks could rise 20%-25% in 2023.

More than a few of our clients have told us that "falling inflation" is consensus and therefore priced into equities and these same clients tend to lean bearish as they...

Mon November 7, 2022

Negatives increasing after bounce; Short-term Peak likely by Thursday

1 year ago Free Webinar Introducing Mark Newton’s Upticks Stock List Speaker: [Mark] Mark L. Newton, CMT AC Head of Technical Strategy Watch the Replay of the Webinar Watch the...

Fri October 7, 2022

Markets Start Week With Powerful Risk-On Rally and Sell-Off Friday on Strong Jobs Report

“It is always from a minority acting in ways different from what the majority would prescribe that the majority, in the end learns to do better.”- Fredrich August von Hayek...

Fri October 7, 2022

Will Sep payrolls affirm JOLTS showing softening labor? Both ISMs point to softer PPI and CPI ahead. HY relative strength is notable.

This week, incoming data points to a concrete softening of the jobs market: As the first week of October comes to an end, equities have managed to post solid gains....

Wed October 5, 2022

JOLTs instance "hard" converging towards improving "soft" data. At this pace, Fed gets 1.0 openings/worker ratio by Oct/Nov. Nasdaq 100 became "100% bid". Since 1996, 6 of 6 times, saw further gains.

After a tumultuous decline in the final weeks of September, market technicals were awful and sentiment and positioning bearish. But in each of the past two days, equities rallied strongly,...

Tue July 26, 2022

Discretionary looks close to bottoming out vs. Staples

The stall out and pullback in US Equities has accelerated further given $WMT’s profit warning and subsequent 8% + drop on Tuesday.  $NDX has taken the lead on this decline...

Mon June 6, 2022

Nasdaq outperformed post dot-com crash. Yup. And structural labor shortage strengthens demand for Technology in 2022

Signs of economic slowing are becoming more prevalent, allaying concerns that the economy is so "hot" that the Fed needs to further accelerate rate hikes. But the unknown is how...

Fri June 3, 2022

As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first

The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure and anxiety will surge regarding...

Thu May 5, 2022

Key takeaways from FOMC = gut check means markets too hawkish = good

Due to the importance of yesterday's FOMC, we are sending out the First Word today, instead of Friday. There will be a resend of today's note with updated COVID data...

Mon May 2, 2022

4 reasons to view FAANG outperformance at end of April with credence. Market inverting and faster growers = lowest valuations...wut?

In fact, as noted by Ryan Detrick, Strategist at LPL, 2022 is the worst Jan to April start for the S&P 500 since 1939. Because the S&P 500 index was...

Mon November 15, 2021

Defensives outperform as Yields, USD push higher ahead of Infrastructure Bill signing

Technical Strategy Video: https://vimeo. com/646229653/aaf1102f42 Trends, momentum remain bullish, and despite Monday’s minor dip, additional strength looks likely back to new highs for $SPX, $NDX, $DJIATreasury yields and US...