Monolithic Power Systems
  • MPWR

  • $822

  • +4.04%
  • $812

  • $832

  • $804

Ticker Appearances

Fri, February 9, 2024 | 10:50AM ET
Monolithic Power systems- MPWR 4.04%  This is a stock investors need to pay attention to following the recent breakout given its past price history. Most are clamoring to attempt to "find the next SMCI" which is no easy task, but one tool i often employ is to recognize when a stock has enjoyed a huge runup prior to basing- MPWR rose from $165 back in early 2020 to nearly $600 within a two year period, (+263%) then went sideways in a giant Reverse Head and Shoulders base from late 2021 into late 2023 before the breakout in December 2023 with its move above $580. This resulted in a sharp spike to over $750 quickly. However, no evidence of any counter-trend exhaustion is present on daily nor weekly charts after this week's breakout, and if one merely measures the current rally from early January this year and compares it to October 2023 bounce, it would be equal near $815.. Furthermore, if one expects a similar move percentage wise to the 2020-2021 rally, in percentage terms, that would allow for a move over $1400. Those are rudimentary projection techniques, but ones i often employ to come up with technical price projection targets. ( i am not saying that MPWR should get over 1000 this year, but i do expect a move to $816, then consolidation, then further gains, overall, so i still find this attractive and the reason has more to do with its larger structure and breakout and volume, not the last few days of gains. (Some background first on MPWR- This is a Fabless semiconductor company which just beat analyst estimates for both EPS and revenue. It delivered strong upside revenue guidance for Q1 at $437-457 mln. In addition, MPWR announced a hefty 25% increase to its quarterly dividend to $1.25/sh Enterprise Data was the star of the show, growing a robust 88.4% yr/yr to $129 mln, which made it the largest segment. Overall, as the demand for Chips grows, the demand for power systems also should increase) Bottom line, i like owning MPWR in small size at current levels technically speaking with plans on holding throughout 2024, but would look to certainly take advantage of any consolidation that happens over the next 1-2 months, and its right to have this on investors' radar.
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^Prices as of 2024-07-26 16:15:15