Wed September 13

Market internals worsening despite indices holding up

US EQUITY INDICES AND TREASURY YIELDS REMAIN QUITE CHOPPY, BUT THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE REMAINS LOWER OVER THE FINAL COUPLE WEEKS OF SEPTEMBER.  TREASURY YIELDS LOOK LIKELY TO BREAK...

Tue August 22

Can NVDA save the market?

US EQUITY AND TREASURY MARKETS LIKELY BOTTOM IN THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS AND BREAKS OF CURRENT DOWNTREND LINES WOULD SUGGEST AN INITIAL BOTTOM IS IN PLACE.  AT PRESENT, INSUFFICIENT TECHNICAL...

Wed June 7

Financials and Energy strength are encouraging for SPX rally

TREND BULLISH- EXPECT RALLY UP TO SPX 4325 INTO END OF WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLE MINOR STALLOUT; PULLBACKS SHOULD BE BUYABLE WHEN THEY OCCUR FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTH IN JUNE. Wednesday’s minor...

Mon May 15

EPS: Less "bad" is good = inflection for fundamental equity investors = "buy the dip" returns. Week ahead light on macro data and still game of inches.

NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (BELOW): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS In our view, last week added to the constructive case for stocks in 2023. The S&P 500...

Fri May 12

Data this week strengthened pause case, while collapse in margin debt near dot-com trough. FAANG OW justified by AI TINA

NEW: NOTICE NEW SECTION (BELOW): ADDED SO YOU CAN SEE OUR TACTICAL IDEAS This was a big week for inflation data with both critical April CPI (5/10) and PPI (5/11) coming...

Wed April 26

Equity markets bank into "bunker mode" in front of May FOMC but ATH in unemployment claims for over $200k earners = far softer wage growth ahead. April 2023 rebalance "Granny shots" net -3 (+7, -10).

Reminder, tune in this coming Thursday to an important webinar ___________________________________GRANNY SHOTS APRIL QUARTERLY REBALANCE TODAySEE BELOW FOR ADDS AND DELETES ___________________________________ Equity markets came under selling pressure on Tuesday,...

Mon April 17

Stocks up 65% of the past 20 trading days, highest since Nov 2021, and a reason it is starting to "feel like a bull market." We expect 1Q23 EPS to exceed expectations, likely 2H23 trough in EPS = supporting strengthening breadth.

The S&P 500 is up 8% YTD (~+20% in the past 6 months) and at this pace, is annualizing returns of ~30% -- that is not our forecast. And as...

Fri April 14

Financials strength should be a positive for the back half of April

Despite the mild pullback to take away some of Thursday’s strong gains, this week managed to close firmly positive for both the SPX and DJIA for the fourth week of...

Wed April 5

Aftershocks part 4: 1Q2023 EPS season will show whether economy or inflation broke. Fed running out of reasons to hike rates in 2023 given JOLTS/PCE/ISM/Dallas Survey.

SKIP MONDAY <– Easter SKIP TUESDAY Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY <– GOOD FRIDAY Based on my recent meetings, it is obvious institutional investors are waiting to see what broke...

Wed March 29

Aftershocks part 3: Ripples still widening. Technology borrowing costs now 63bp LOWER than banks and VIX closed below 20 1st time since SVB.

It has been nearly 3 weeks since the sudden failure of SVB and the aftershocks continue. The biggest impact from the banking crisis is the market's expectations for Fed policy...

Mon March 27

Even as banking crisis still expanding, FAANG/Tech nearly recovered entire 2022 losses

The scope of the banking crisis continues to edge wider, with additional regional banks seeing pressure by investors (bonds well under par) and over the weekend, a Bloomberg article noted...

Thu March 9

Financials breakdown vs SPX will lead to further underperformance

The worse-than-expected Jobless Claims number Thursday (211k vs. 195k expected) caused a big Treasury rally but failed to lead stocks higher, given the big decline seen in bank stocks led...