Mon December 5, 2022

Flat equities after "hot" Nov jobs report shows stocks proving more resilient than consensus expects... why is S&P 500 drawdown worse than Germany, China or Japan? Still see rally into YE towards 4,400-4,500

The strong November jobs report (on 12/2) of +263k vs 200k consensus (plus strong wage growth) gave markets every excuse to sell off sharply:Strong jobs = Fed needs to tighten...

Fri December 2, 2022

Amidst a Backdrop of Other Developments, Powell’s Comments Spark a Good Week for Equities

Ordinarily, many investors would have been focused on the retail sector this week. If we consider Thanksgiving to be the official beginning to the holiday shopping season, this year saw...

Fri December 2, 2022

The inflation crisis of 2022 made investors focus solely on danger, not opportunity. Powell signaling time to look at latter. YE rally to be fueled by Tech + Small-caps + High P/E + Heavily Shorted

I am on my way to Tokyo/Osaka for a few days, traveling with SMBC Nikko, which is our business partner in Japan. Japan is one of my favorite countries to...

Fri April 30, 2021

S&P 500 Ends Week Flat Again, Energy Leads Weekly Gains

Earnings season is well within its stride. So far, of the 287 companies that have reported so far 87% of these companies have beaten earnings estimates by a median of...

Fri April 23, 2021

S&P 500 Ends Week Flat, Friday Action Led By Small Caps

Fri April 23, 2021

S&P 500 Ends Week Flat, Friday Action Led By Small Caps

The market took a somewhat volatile and meandering path this week to close essentially flat. The S&P 500 closed at 4,180.17 which was ever so slightly down from the 4,185.47...

Thu April 22, 2021

Harley-Davidson's ($HOG) Earnings Blowout Shows Company Is On Right Track

Few companies could be a better poster-child for why many institutional investors hate what we like to call Epicenter stocks then the quintessential but also centenarian motorcycle manufacturer. Sure, Harley...

Fri April 16, 2021

COVID-19 UPDATE: Israel daily cases (per 1mm) now 26 vs 952 (Jan). ND and SD could see "obliteration" by June. Oil prices key to direction of Epicenter trade...

The lag between penetration of vaccines and cases falling is due to a few factors including the fact that vaccines take time to become effective.  And the broader fact, a...

Wed April 14, 2021

COVID-19 UPDATE: Multiple reasons J&J vaccine "pause" not a recovery setback. Epicenter stocks significantly underperformed since mid-March, but EPS revisions = good and Technicals, while damaged, are still positive

3 Deletions: $PBCT, $NVT, $VNO 13 Additions: $AZO, $HOG, $GRMN, $MGM, $WH, $GPS, $LB, $VIRT, $AGCO, $OC, $UBER. $EXP, $NUE 35 "POWER TRIFECTA" STOCKS IDEAS: Consumer Discretionary: $AZO, $HOG, $GRMN,...

Tue April 13, 2021

COVID-19 UPDATE: Global cases within 8% of all-time highs, even as USA down 80%. Energy down 8 of the last 10 days, in past 20 years >8 of last 10 days point to strong 3M gains

But as the global case count below shows, COVID-19 is still spreading wildly and prolifically across the World.  In fact, the 7-day avg cases of 670,000 (and rising rapidly) is...

Mon April 12, 2021

COVID-19 UPDATE: Michigan COVID-19 hospitalizations could surge to new highs in coming weeks. S&P 500 gains YTD explained by +6.4% revisions to 2021 EPS by Street

Is there a common thread to explain this? I am not entirely clear. And of these states, MI seems to be experiencing the worst of the surges. Gov Whitmer has...

Fri April 9, 2021

S&P 500 Ends Week at All-Time High, QQQ Leads Gains