Just post Europe's close we've seen Equities start to claw back from early losses, Nasdaq has just taken out yesterday's highs while S&P is down just fractionally, as March S&P Futures have gained about 20 points from intra-day lows Yields have trended down slightly in the last 30 min and both Technology and Healthcare are positive on the day- But yet still 1%+ losses out of Energy and Materials, and 9 of 11 sectors are still down on the session. US Dollar is fractionally positive, Crude is up along with sharp gains in Natural Gas- Most metals, both precious and base metals are lower- 4764 will be important for SPX and above should allow for a quick move back up into 4793 and over- Today's leaders as of mid-day areJNPR -0.64% ,ILMN 2.67% CTLT 0.39% RVTYMTCH N/A%  while on the downside,HPE 1.29% ,ES 1.42% CAH 1.49% CHTR 15.16%  andMRNA 1.42% - Ability to regain yesterday's highs in SPX, DJIA and NASDAQ should be beneficial towards further gains into the close

I discussed a possible consolidation this week and TNX spiked up to highest since early November above 4.69 which has coincided with Equities weakening mildly and partially giving back some of Friday's gains. "What is Needed" to think this could be wrong? A couple things to note- Given the pattern of this recent advance, Market bears cannot see any gain back above Friday's highs which lies at SPX-4418 and for S&P December Futures- (ES 1.42% _F)- 4435.50., not to mention QQQ over 378.54 and RSP above 142.25. Furthermore, any decline back under TNX-4.624, Friday's lows, could lead back to new November lows for Yields, and tomorrow's CPI should be watched carefully in this regard (This is an economic release that likely could affect Yields) Most of Monday's early weakness is in Utilities, REITS and Materials, while Technology is down -0.50%- Overall, watching to see whether US Index prices can extend declines or will find a way to churn higher a bit more is really important, and at present, there isn't sufficient deterioration in last week's advance yet to say that a pullback is underway. SPX lies near key downtrends and these next 2-3 days are really do-or-Die- Regaining last Friday's highs was an alternate scenario last week, but, as always, it pays to know where the risk lies and what would lead to a Melt-up.

I discussed a possible consolidation this week and TNX spiked up to highest since early November above 4.69 which has coincided with Equities weakening mildly and partially giving back some of Friday's gains. "What is Needed" to think this could be wrong? A couple things to note- Given the pattern of this recent advance, Market bears cannot see any gain back above Friday's highs which lies at SPX-4418 and for S&P December Futures- (ES 1.42% _F)- 4435.50., not to mention QQQ over 378.54 and RSP above 142.25. Furthermore, any decline back under TNX-4.624, Friday's lows, could lead back to new November lows for Yields, and tomorrow's CPI should be watched carefully in this regard (This is an economic release that likely could affect Yields) Most of Monday's early weakness is in Utilities, REITS and Materials, while Technology is down -0.50%- Overall, watching to see whether US Index prices can extend declines or will find a way to churn higher a bit more is really important, and at present, there isn't sufficient deterioration in last week's advance yet to say that a pullback is underway. SPX lies near key downtrends and these next 2-3 days are really do-or-Die- Regaining last Friday's highs was an alternate scenario last week, but, as always, it pays to know where the risk lies and what would lead to a Melt-up.

Quite the mid-day Roller coaster in both Rates and S&P Futures during Powell's speech, but the key takeaway seems to be that the Fed should be on hold in November, specifically based on the markets interpretation and what Fed futures have done. The Percent chance of a Nov hike has dropped to 3%, and Powell said the Yield rise "could mean" the Fed has less to do- So the door certainly open for another rate hike in December, and nothing too Fresh today, but seemed like Powell's comments put him more in line with the other Fed Speakers. My technical take is the LACK of Selloff in market is generally a positive for both stocks and Treasuries- S&P at 1:00pm EST is up a fractional +0.16% while TNX which is down from 5.00% and yields are at 4.945%. if S&P Futures (ES 1.42% _F) rise above 4365, this will lift prices to test 4417, and for SPX cash, any move back OVER 4401 would be seen as quite bullish for a rally next week

Retail sales come in much hotter than expected & 10-yr bond yields spike up to near my technical target between 4.80-4.85%- Notice that S&P Futures are lower by -0.50%, yet haven't shown too much damage to the broader pattern. The gap between last Friday and yesterday's open could be filled, but also should act as strong support, and i expect this results in a buying opportunity and strong support for S&P near 4329-4346 area for^SPX 1.11%  cash. As S&P Futures hourly chart shows, the area at 4340-4355 is the key area of support which cannot be violated, butES 1.42% _F should come into some support at higher levels near 4359-75. Bottom line, i do not make much of this early selling pressure until/unless last Friday's lows are taken out, which looks unlikely, and this dip makes SPX attractive, as i expect a rebound back higher.