Thu October 13, 2022

Risk Revolution: ETFs

"Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!" – John Bogle Early in 2022, we did an installment of this column called _When Volatility Smiles At...

Tue June 21, 2022

Short-term bounce unlikely to exceed SPX 3975 before retest

A bounce looks to be underway, given Tuesday’s prices lifting up to multi-day highs and closing near highs of the session.  While this might seem overdue given the extent of...

Wed June 15, 2022

Markets far more de-risked into June FOMC. And +75bp brings rates closer to market expectations.

Since Friday's CPI (higher CPI) and U Mich Consumer Confidence survey (rise in consumer inflation expectations), consensus expectations for June is now a 75bp hike (vs 50bp prior). This is...

Mon June 13, 2022

Investors have become "single issue" voters (inflation)... and Tech + small-caps quietly gaining

The May CPI report (reported Friday), coupled with the U Mich Consumer Confidence survey, showed inflation remains sticky. And while there was some evidence, on the margin, of inflation pressures...

Fri June 10, 2022

Emerging leadership of Tech + China supports better 2H outlook... more signs forward inflation cooling

As many of our clients have remarked recently, every economic data point is really an inflation report. Repeating the obvious logic: trajectory of inflation impacts Fed rate path. Thus, every...

Wed June 8, 2022

"Soft landing" scenario strengthening. 1980s inflation broken when "goods" inflation peaked. Consumer discounts ahead. Target confirms. Manheim Index shows Luxury + Full-sized tanking.

Investors tell us they don't want to "fight the Fed" and as long as the Fed is tight, they will not touch equities. This is intuitively sound, but here are...

Mon June 6, 2022

Nasdaq outperformed post dot-com crash. Yup. And structural labor shortage strengthens demand for Technology in 2022

Signs of economic slowing are becoming more prevalent, allaying concerns that the economy is so "hot" that the Fed needs to further accelerate rate hikes. But the unknown is how...

Fri June 3, 2022

As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first

The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure and anxiety will surge regarding...

Wed June 1, 2022

Recent cadence of data shows inflation risks cooling = half-full arguments gaining traction. TA Newton believes Bitcoin has bottomed = good for equities

The White House and Fed met Tuesday and this is the first meeting since Powell was re-confirmed. The takeaways from this meeting are not entirely surprising and President Biden noted...

Fri May 27, 2022

Multiple signs economy shifting to "buyer's market" vs seller's = downside to inflation = justify stocks strengthening

I had a conversation earlier this week with the owner of one of the largest privately held food producers in the US (tens of millions of pounds sized, so huge)....

Mon May 23, 2022

Stocks overshot to downside even with inflation risks. Indeed.com shows material weakening in labor markets = reduced wage inflation risk

Inflation and fears of surging inflation are top of mind. There are many causes behind this rise in inflation from supply chain woes, war-related disruptions, COVID-19 policies, China lockdowns, worker...

Fri May 20, 2022

DeMark webinar takeaways - one more selloff then "shocking" rally coming in SP 500 (within days). Crude/nat gas gain peaking...

Today's note is a recap from our webinar with Tom DeMark, founder of DeMark Analytics and Symbolik. com. Tom DeMark has gained a large following over his >50 years on...