Prices as of 2025-12-18 16:20:44 ET
Ticker Appearances
Daily Technical Strategy
SPX, TNX and NVDA in focus
^SPX's late-day bounce seemed to directly follow Trump's comments on rescinding global chip curbs amid the AI restriction debate. This seemed to coincide with NVDA 1.72% lifting...
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First Word
Fed "recalibrate" easing cycle = investors to "recalibrate" and embrace small-caps
This is day two since the Fed initiated a rate cutting cycle, and markets are reacting positively. Most notably, small-caps (IWM 0.58% ) are leading gains, even...
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First Word
Post-FOMC, how equity markets trade in the next few weeks (or so) is noise. Fed "put" is back and 3 reasons the "good news not priced in"
Today is a short note in front of the Sept FOMC rate decision, which will be released at 2pm ET on Wed afternoon (9/18). There...
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First Word
Tailwinds into Sept FOMC next week. But Sept has peculiar seasonality to be minding.
VIDEO: We see positive tailwinds supportive for stocks into next week and post-FOMC rate decision (Wed). But we cannot also shake the peculiar seasonality of...
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First Word
By Wed am, clarity on two macro datapoints = Winner of Prez debate + August CPI. Clarity allows stocks to stabilize in front of Sept FOMC next week.
VIDEO: By Wed am, the market will have clarity = good as the Prez debates and CPI are released. While next 8 weeks are choppy,...
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First Word
6 reasons we expect S&P 500 to finish 2024 strong, despite challenges for next 8 weeks
VIDEO: While next 8 weeks are challenging, we discuss 6 reasons stocks likely finish second half of 2024 strong. Please click below to view our Macro...
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First Word
A "local" peak in VIX likely at hand = near-term rally likely post-Aug jobs. Even if one is cautious into election day, no reason for stocks to fall first week of Sept.
VIDEO: We think the VIX made a local top, setting stage for stocks to rally post-Aug jobs report on Friday. Please click below to view...
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First Word
Entering tricky 8 weeks into election day. Watch the VIX as this signals if pain is "front loaded"
Post-Labor Day, the S&P 500 started September with a -2% decline. This is the worst start since 2015 (-3%) and 5th worst ever since 1928....
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First Word
Rotation into small-caps, industrials and financials post-NVDA results is a sign of market strength. Still "summer of small-caps"
VIDEO: Today was a demonstration of the strength of this equity market as the largest stock fell and market broadened sharply led by small-caps (duration...
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First Word
Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps
VIDEO: We detail 4 reasons we expect markets to view the July FOMC rate decision as dovish (duration 5:45). We believe the...
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Daily Technical Strategy
SPX, TNX and NVDA in focus
^SPX's late-day bounce seemed to directly follow Trump's comments on rescinding global chip curbs amid the AI restriction debate. This seemed to coincide with NVDA 1.72% lifting...
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First Word
Fed "recalibrate" easing cycle = investors to "recalibrate" and embrace small-caps
This is day two since the Fed initiated a rate cutting cycle, and markets are reacting positively. Most notably, small-caps (IWM 0.58% ) are leading gains, even...
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First Word
Post-FOMC, how equity markets trade in the next few weeks (or so) is noise. Fed "put" is back and 3 reasons the "good news not priced in"
Today is a short note in front of the Sept FOMC rate decision, which will be released at 2pm ET on Wed afternoon (9/18). There...
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First Word
Tailwinds into Sept FOMC next week. But Sept has peculiar seasonality to be minding.
VIDEO: We see positive tailwinds supportive for stocks into next week and post-FOMC rate decision (Wed). But we cannot also shake the peculiar seasonality of...
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First Word
By Wed am, clarity on two macro datapoints = Winner of Prez debate + August CPI. Clarity allows stocks to stabilize in front of Sept FOMC next week.
VIDEO: By Wed am, the market will have clarity = good as the Prez debates and CPI are released. While next 8 weeks are choppy,...
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First Word
6 reasons we expect S&P 500 to finish 2024 strong, despite challenges for next 8 weeks
VIDEO: While next 8 weeks are challenging, we discuss 6 reasons stocks likely finish second half of 2024 strong. Please click below to view our Macro...
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First Word
A "local" peak in VIX likely at hand = near-term rally likely post-Aug jobs. Even if one is cautious into election day, no reason for stocks to fall first week of Sept.
VIDEO: We think the VIX made a local top, setting stage for stocks to rally post-Aug jobs report on Friday. Please click below to view...
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First Word
Entering tricky 8 weeks into election day. Watch the VIX as this signals if pain is "front loaded"
Post-Labor Day, the S&P 500 started September with a -2% decline. This is the worst start since 2015 (-3%) and 5th worst ever since 1928....
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First Word
Rotation into small-caps, industrials and financials post-NVDA results is a sign of market strength. Still "summer of small-caps"
VIDEO: Today was a demonstration of the strength of this equity market as the largest stock fell and market broadened sharply led by small-caps (duration...
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First Word
Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps
VIDEO: We detail 4 reasons we expect markets to view the July FOMC rate decision as dovish (duration 5:45). We believe the...
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First Word
Post-FOMC, how equity markets trade in the next few weeks (or so) is noise. Fed "put" is back and 3 reasons the "good news not priced in"
Today is a short note in front of the Sept FOMC rate decision, which will be released at 2pm ET on Wed afternoon (9/18). There...
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First Word
Tailwinds into Sept FOMC next week. But Sept has peculiar seasonality to be minding.
VIDEO: We see positive tailwinds supportive for stocks into next week and post-FOMC rate decision (Wed). But we cannot also shake the peculiar seasonality of...
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First Word
By Wed am, clarity on two macro datapoints = Winner of Prez debate + August CPI. Clarity allows stocks to stabilize in front of Sept FOMC next week.
VIDEO: By Wed am, the market will have clarity = good as the Prez debates and CPI are released. While next 8 weeks are choppy,...
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First Word
6 reasons we expect S&P 500 to finish 2024 strong, despite challenges for next 8 weeks
VIDEO: While next 8 weeks are challenging, we discuss 6 reasons stocks likely finish second half of 2024 strong. Please click below to view our Macro...
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First Word
A "local" peak in VIX likely at hand = near-term rally likely post-Aug jobs. Even if one is cautious into election day, no reason for stocks to fall first week of Sept.
VIDEO: We think the VIX made a local top, setting stage for stocks to rally post-Aug jobs report on Friday. Please click below to view...
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First Word
Entering tricky 8 weeks into election day. Watch the VIX as this signals if pain is "front loaded"
Post-Labor Day, the S&P 500 started September with a -2% decline. This is the worst start since 2015 (-3%) and 5th worst ever since 1928....
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First Word
Rotation into small-caps, industrials and financials post-NVDA results is a sign of market strength. Still "summer of small-caps"
VIDEO: Today was a demonstration of the strength of this equity market as the largest stock fell and market broadened sharply led by small-caps (duration...
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First Word
Probabilities favor market seeing July FOMC as dovish, leading to strong equity rally led by small-caps
VIDEO: We detail 4 reasons we expect markets to view the July FOMC rate decision as dovish (duration 5:45). We believe the...
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First Word
Post-FOMC press conf (2:30pm), equities rallied 5D last 5 of 6 instances. Small-cap remains most compelling.
VIDEO: The Wed FOMC meeting key this week. Markets managed to rally 5 of the last 6 FOMC meetings. Please click below to view our Macro...
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First Word
PCE important Fri. Small-caps $IWM just generated a signal only seen 10 times since 1979 and almost always "early cycle" signal with 100% win-ratio 3M, 6M and 12M later (90% 1M).
VIDEO: Small-caps just generated a very important quantitative signal, moving >1% in 11 of the last 12 trading sessions. This has only happened at the start...
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