As the year turns, many—if not most—of us are saying, “Good riddance to one of the worst years in recent history.” In my 35 years of observing markets, I can say I’ve never seen the like of it.
Put the market aside for a moment. Almost 20 million Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19), with over 340,000 dead. Around the world, the numbers are, respectively, 82 million and 1.8 million. Devastating. When is COVID going to release its grip on the world? Good question and look for some guidance below from Tom Lee, our head of research, who’s had an incredibly prescient track record.
And if you do look at the stock market, you have to remember the ulcerous stomach tension of March 2020, when the market fell 35% in a matter of days from the February high. America’s vaunted GDP crashed as many states, like New York and California, locked down their economies—more than once to stem the virus—to little avail. Then the US conducted a rancorous presidential election, with citizens much divided over both the response to COVID-19 and the economic way forward. The US is as riven as I have ever seen, and I voted for Gerald Ford way back when.