Upticks – Newton’s Law

Upticks Additions

• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA 5.21%  – $126.86) – Added in 8/13 Technical Strategy

Upticks Deletions

• Antero Resources Corp. (AR 1.37%  – $30.18)
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX -0.65%  – $366.54) – Removed in 8/8 Technical Strategy

UPTICKS Total Return vs. SPY, Year to Date

UPTICKS Return vs. S&P 500, Since Inception

Upticks One Month Contribution to Performance Relative to SPY (July 18 to August 18)

Upticks Commentary

Below is a technical write-up of five stocks for this month’s UPTICKS publication, including the commentary surrounding the one addition, BABA 5.21% .  

(All prices reflect closing prices as of Monday, 8/18/25.)

Anglogold Ashanti LLC (AU 5.19% - $53.70)   – Recent weakness spells opportunity after intermediate-term breakout

Support $52, $49, Resistance $59, $73

• AU 5.19%  looks like an excellent risk/reward technically following its intermediate-term breakout to the highest levels since 2006. 
• Stocks correlating with Gold and Silver have begun to strengthen entering the seasonally bullish time for precious metals which usually runs through October of most years.   After the recent technical test of resistance near 2006 peaks, AU 5.19%  pulled back over the last six of seven trading sessions.  This creates a more favorable risk/reward opportunity at a time when Gold should begin a rally back to new all-time highs.  
• Monthly momentum (RSI) has just entered overbought territory.  However, the basing of spot gold has begun to show signs of nearing the end of this three-month sideways pattern given a recent pattern of higher lows.  
• Overall, I expect a coming push back to new all-time highs for AU 5.19% , and anticipate that this likely could retest its all-time highs in the low $70’s into this Fall. AU 5.19%  appears very favorable technically, and many Gold stocks represent an attractive source of diversification for those looking for high relative strength names outside of Technology.  Resistance levels lie near $59, then $73, while strong technical support lies near $52, then $49.

First Solar, Inc- (FSLR 3.98% - $219.33)   – Breakout bodes well for additional strength

Support- $189, $180, Resistance- $222, $233

• FSLR 3.98%  ’s high–volume surge above its three-month consolidation last week took this to the highest levels of the year last week.  This creates a very attractive risk/reward opportunity as FSLR 3.98%  ’s base breakout should help this to push steadily higher in the months to come. 
• Momentum remains positive on a weekly and monthly basis and last week’s breakout makes this more timely on a short-term perspective.  Given that the stock price had been moving sideways since May, last week’s move above $198.87 likely can carry this to $222 initially with additional targets near $233. 
• These are shorter-term technical targets but the stock’s progress should eventually lead to a retest of its all-time highs over $300 which were hit last June. FSLR 3.98%  has been a consistent leader within the Solar stock space over the last month, and its +16.30% gains in the last month represent the fourth-best performance of among the 30 stocks that make up TAN 3.92% , the Invesco Solar ETF.  
• Overall, FSLR 3.98%  looks very timely after last week’s breakout, and I expect this to show continued leadership within the Alternative Energy space.

Tesla (TSLA 6.80% - $335.16)   – Breakout bodes well for 2H progress as structure improves

Support- $320, $298, Resistance- $368, $425

• TSLA 6.80%  ‘S $339.03 close from August 11^th successfully finished above the prior July peak of $338, representing a bullish breakout of its three-month triangle pattern. Volume expanded to the highest levels since July 28^th at over 104 million shares. 
• This is quite positive and could kick off a rally back to test and exceed the late May peaks at $367.71, with technical targets above at $420-$425.  Despite the stock market possibly entering a period of sub-par performance if/when Stock indices turn lower in September, I suspect that most of the early year technical damage in TSLA 6.80%  might allow this to hold up relatively better than the broader market. 
• Moreover, TSLA 6.80%  ’s cycle pattern is bullish for the back half of 2025 after having shown early year weakness.   Daily, weekly, and monthly momentum indicators have all begun to improve based on its strength since late July.   Thus, the larger structural pattern has begun to improve ever so slowly and should point to an above-average chance of a big rally in the months ahead. 
• Cycles show that October-December could prove to be the time of the best upside acceleration for TSLA 6.80% , so it’s right to position at current levels with thoughts of buying any dips into September.  
• Overall, it’s right to be bullish on TSLA 6.80%  given the improvement in the technical structure and momentum, and I am expecting a much better second half of the year.  The ability to exceed $425 in Q4 would increase the likelihood of a rally back to test all-time highs near $488.

Coinbase (COIN 6.56% -$320.73)     – Pullback makes COIN 6.56%  a superb risk/reward.

Technically Support- $290, $276, Resistance- $377, $444

• COIN 6.56%  ’s consolidation over the last few weeks proved to be more extreme than what was seen in many Cryptocurrencies, but its selloff failed to do much technical damage that would make this unattractive for buying dips. 
• As weekly charts show, the stock’s momentum had gotten overbought heading into mid-July, and its 28% selloff over the last 3 of 4 weeks has helped to alleviate this overbought state.  Additionally, the selling pressure brought COIN 6.56%  down to its intermediate-term uptrend which began in April of this year as the stock market bottomed.  
• Thus, I consider COIN 6.56%  a good risk/reward here with upside targets at $369-$377 and then above $377 allows for a rally back to test $444.  Any Fall weakness below $293 would postpone a rally, allowing for an additional period of consolidation down to $276. 
• However, given the bullish trend and momentum in Bitcoin, I expect to see COIN 6.56%  strengthen along with Bitcoin over the next 1-2 months, and feel like this recent dip makes this quite appealing.

Alibaba (BABA 5.21% - $121.40)     – Recent pattern improvement could help lift BABA 5.21%

Support- $116, $112, Resistance- $158, $188

• Alibaba is being added again to the UPTICKS list following recent stabilization ahead of earnings
• Technically I view the recent strength in BABA 5.21%  in recent weeks as being a constructive development which makes this attractive following its big setback into early June.
• The minor consolidation in BABA 5.21%  morphed into a triangle pattern that has just been resolved by structural improvement, representing an upside breakout to this recent pattern.
• Volume gave an early hint to a possible breakout following the highest volume session on July 15^th since mid-April (34 million shares), coinciding with a sharp upward gap.   Its subsequent consolidation in mid-to-late July has now been resolved higher once again following today’s rally to the highest levels since mid-May.
• This is quite technically bullish for BABA 5.21% , and should help to drive this back to challenge and eventually exceed the prior peak from mid-March at $148.43.
• Overall, this positive technical price action in recent days directly coincided with the bullish economic news announced on China’s M1 Money growth levels from last week.
• Bottom line, given a good technical likelihood of a further decline in the US Dollar in the weeks to come, I like adding BABA 5.21%  back to UPTICKS at its Wednesday 8/13/25 close of $126.86.