Note: There will be no video today as I will be travelling. Thank you for your understanding.
^SPX has now pushed back to new all-time high territory this week, which sets up for a push up to 6749 in the short run, and potentially near 6800 into mid-October before some consolidation starts to get underway. This past week’s winners have been concentrated in Healthcare (Life Sciences, Biotechnology, and Pharmaceutical names), along with Semiconductor stocks and Consumer Electronics. While there appears to be resistance heading into mid-October, it’s likely not for another 30-80 points higher in SPX, and it looks technically right to trust that this rally has more to go.
S&P 500 Index
Many investors are likely wondering if ^SPX might experience a decline if the government shutdown cannot be quickly resolved, and some have pointed to 2018 as an example. That was a time of wrangling over the funding for Trump’s planned border wall, and the shutdown lasted 34 days. However, what many likely don’t remember is that the 2018 shutdown happened on 12/22 or within two days of the market bottom. SPX had already experienced a seasonal correction of 15% from the September highs before the Shutdown even occurred. Thus, in 2025, similar to 2018, it is likely right to avoid getting too nervous about how the Shutdown will play out. This daily ^SPX chart shows an arrow on the day of 12/22, which occurred right before the market bottomed.
S&P 500 Index
While most investors might concentrate on the Tech-heavy ^SPX, it’s important to note that the Equal-weighted ^SPX (RSP 0.58% ) (Invesco’s Equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF) stands to potentially make a new all-time high if it can successfully close above September 11, 2025’s close of $190.33. This is seen as an encouraging development for the broader market following nearly two months of sideways churning, and should help to add confidence to the idea that this market rally can continue into mid-month.
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
While many remain tech-focused, it’s important to note that Healthcare has achieved a meaningful short-term breakout this week, and has outperformed Technology by nearly 400 bps. in the last 5 trading days. As shown below, the Equal-weighted Healthcare ETF (RSPH 2.10% ) managed to break out above the trend extending lower from last year after RSPH hit the highest levels since Spring 2025. This is a short-term bullish development for this sector and has been aided by CRL 2.68% , TECH 2.99% , MRK 4.83% , DHR 2.19% , and IQV 3.23% , which have all risen more than 15% over the last five trading days. While the intermediate-term downtrend in Healthcare vs. SPX remains very much intact, this week’s move is bullish for the Healthcare sector and should help it carry higher in October. Technically, I upgraded Healthcare last month to a Neutral rating from Underweight, and believe that this week’s breakdown does not change Healthcare’s intermediate-term pattern.
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Health Care ETF
One interesting chart i find helpful concerns the ratio between Gold and Bitcoin, when viewing both in relative terms using their respective ETF”s As shown below, while GLD 0.36% has outperformed IBIT -3.14% since this Summer, the longer-term slope of this ratio remains pointed to the downside. Moreover, following a period of outperformance, this ratio is now very close to resistance. Thus, I suspect that Bitcoin should be close to starting to show some outperformance vs. Gold, and this might be getting started following BTCUSD sharp move above $118k.
GLD/IBIT
