Near-term and intermediate-term technical trends remain bullish for US Equities, but momentum remains under pressure in the near-term given the recent stalling out into this week’s FOMC meeting. The combination of overbought conditions coupled with a completion of DeMark-based exhaustion signals on daily charts for QQQ could still allow for some selling pressure in my view over the next 1-2 weeks. I don’t find the near-term risk/reward appealing this week with SPX over 6600. Market breadth has declined in the short run (last two weeks) and I suspect that some minor consolidation could prove likely in the short run, even if Thursday produces a minor bounce. Given how stretched SPX has become lately, I feel that any daily close under the 5-day rising moving average (SPX-6566) likely could coincide with 3-5 days of weakness. At present, DXY and Treasury yields remain downward sloping, precious and industrial metals remain in short-term uptrends, along with Cryptocurrencies. Global developed market and Emerging market Equities remain in bullish uptrends.
Wednesday’s US equity price action proved to be an unusual day of broad-based strength, despite the minor negative performance by ^SPX and QQQ into the close. Despite NASDAQ Composite trading down -0.33%, 6 of 11 sectors finished positive today, and some particularly good strength out of DJIA, IWM and Equal-weighted ^SPX (ETF symbol is RSP).
Both the US Dollar and Treasury yields snapped back from early losses, while emerging markets have pushed up aggressively in the last couple of weeks. (China, Mexico, and India still look interesting and short-term bullish.)
Overall, while the late-day rally might attempt to claw a bit higher into the end of the week, I’m skeptical that US Equities have much more upside given the start of a minor pullback today.
I feel like the next 1-2 weeks might prove choppy and show some minor selling pressure before a larger move higher can get underway.
Thus, Wednesday’s small selling didn’t really accomplish what I thought was possible and necessary after this runup. I am not comfortable with the risk/reward in the short run (meaning the next couple of weeks) even if Thursday attempts to push higher.
Ideally, the best risk/reward will arise from a 38-50% correction of the pullback from early September. Today’s snapback rally still leaves some unanswered questions.
As shown below, the minor intra-day recovery didn’t really show much improvement in the NASDAQ Composite daily chart. Even on a minor rally Thursday, momentum will begin to retreat given Thursday’s decline which should make upside likely limited.
Nasdaq Composite Index
New UPTICKS long selection- Reddit (RDDT)
I plan to release UPTICKS either Thursday or Friday of this week, but here’s a sneak peek of a couple stocks which I am adding, and will use the closing price for Thursday, 9/18/25.
RDDT looks quite attractive following its recent breakout back to new all-time highs. The stock is pushing higher this week out of its consolidation following four straight days of consolidation, which directly followed the breakout back to new all-time highs earlier this month.
While momentum indicators like RSI have grown overbought, the technical structure remains quite bullish, and this is one of the higher-ranked stocks within Tom Lee’s Small and Mid-Cap (SMID) universe.
DeMark indicators remain premature on weekly charts by roughly 4-6 weeks, potentially to show any upside exhaustion, and I expect that a sharp push higher is likely into mid-October up to $345 before this shows much evidence of stalling out.
My initial upside target lies at $345, which equates to roughly a 138.2% Fibonacci alternative projection from the initial April 2024-February 2025 rally when measured from April 2025.
Pullbacks, if/when they occur during the seasonally weak cyclical period from October into November, should provide strong support to buy dips near $249 on any weakness. At present, it’s thought that this week’s strength should pave the way for upside acceleration over the next month.
Reddit, Inc.
New UPTICKS Selection #2- Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
HOOD’s high-volume breakout above former all-time highs from 2021 this past Summer paved the way for sharp gains in recent months, and additional gains still look likely given its strong momentum and bullish technical structure.
The stock showed just minor consolidation from July into early September this year following the initial breakout to new highs. However, this consolidation has helped alleviate some of the overbought conditions which were present this past Summer.
Similar to RDDT, HOOD is highly ranked amidst Tom Lee’s SMID portfolio, and it’s right to add Smaller capitalization names to UPTICKS given the start of the FOMC’s rate-cutting cycle again.
I anticipate a possible move up to $146, which represents a 200% alternative retracement to the initial rally off multi-year lows which bottomed in 2023 and spiked higher into February of this year. (When measuring the alternative move from the April lows, this helps to project $146 as being a possibility.)
While the failure to move up sharply into October might result in momentum stalling out a bit more after its recent consolidation, I expect a big rally into October before some minor consolidation.
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Computer-Data Storage arguably is hands-down the best part of Technology right now
Many have been in awe of the rally seen in stocks like Western Digital and Seagate Technology in recent months, which has helped to power Tech Hardware to outperform both the Semiconductor and Software sub-sectors.
Interestingly enough, while stocks like STX (Added to UPTICKS in May 2025) have gotten quite overbought, the pattern for the Data Storage group looks quite bullish.
As shown below, this group from Investors’ Business Daily’s MarketSurge software is ranked #2 out of 197 sector rankings.
This contains the following 10 names: MU, STX, WDC, PSTG, NTAP, SNDK, SIMO, PENG, BLZE, and QMCO.
Many of these have gotten quite overbought lately. However, the monthly chart shows strength this month, leading to a breakout back above 2000 highs to all-time high territory. Thus, September’s gains represent a breakout of a high last made 25 years ago.
This is a very bullish chart, and I expect to see additional gains into October, along with dips being bought on any pullback into November, before pushing higher into year-end.
Data Storage is an area that deserves continued attention within Tech Hardware, and I still find it attractive despite the near-term overbought conditions.
Computer-Data Storage
