Tough to fade SPX when NVDA still trending up sharply Array ( [cookie] => b074d3-e76a02-1fff7d-1b3292-0cbc72 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 224266 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
Short-term trends remain bullish, and daily momentum gauges have hit overbought levels while DeMark exhaustion could materialize using multiple methods within the next few days for SPY and QQQ. Overall, it’s bullish to see the degree of broad-based expansion in sector participation following a push to new all-time highs for SPX and QQQ, but indices are now growing stretched, and there stands a chance of some expiration-related selling next week. While I suspect a minor pullback could be nearing, there remains insufficient proof to think it’s gotten underway at this time. My thinking is that rates starting to turn higher might serve to spook Equities next week if/when auction results are poor, combined with higher-than-expected CPI report. My analysis suggests that the time heading into next week might prove pivotal for a short-term peak in US Stock indices. However, as discussed, this week’s trading has provided zero evidence that this is yet underway. Overall, it’s right to trust this US Equity rally until evidence of NVDA peaking occurs, given its weight within the benchmark indices, and that still appears premature.
As shown below, Wednesday’s close was quite constructive after the minor stalling out in recent days. $IWM actually finished at the highest levels since February and has been showing meaningful outperformance vs. US Equities of late. Meanwhile, both $SPX and $NDX still appear to have a bit more upside to go to reach new monthly highs before any type of settling gets underway.
Overall, I think it’s right to expect $SPX lifts up to 6350-75 area in the next 2-3 days which might help TD Combo “13 Exhaustion signals” form for $SPX, and also for $NVDA potentially. The confluence of two different DeMark related signals might be important towards signaling some type of stalling out.


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