Short-term trends in US Equities remain bullish, and despite some slowing in the breadth and momentum that has taken place in the last few weeks, uptrends remain intact. While a rally over February peaks should happen this Summer, it’s hard to make a technical call for an immediate breakout. Both SPX and QQQ likely will find resistance near February highs that allows for consolidation in mid-June ahead of a push back to new all-time highs. Meanwhile, both Treasury yields and the US Dollar are likely to begin trending lower in the weeks to come. Meanwhile, Safe-Haven trades like Japanese Yen and Gold should be starting to turn back higher, and I expect that Equities can still rally despite this happening into mid-June. I favor Industrials, Financials, Technology, and Utilities, while Emerging markets also have appeal given the drop in the US Dollar. Overall, a push up to between 6000-6150 is likely for SPX, while QQQ should rally to 540 before some minor stalling out.
As discussed last week, the minor stalling out in US Equity indices is thought to prove temporary before a push back above 6000 in SPX, which arguably should happen in early June.
Given the snapback recovery following worse than expected ISM data Monday, I believe this process of pushing back higher has gotten underway.
As seen below, the most likely area of strong resistance lies near all-time highs near SPX-6150. Overall, I do not expect this area to be immediately broken.
Monday’s push higher resulted in SPX closing within 10 points of its important intra-day peak of 5943.13 from last Thursday. Technically speaking, my belief is that this should be tested and exceeded this week en route to a push above 6000. Thus, a daily close over 5943 might result in a 100 point rally this week in SPX ahead of some stalling out. At present, this consolidation looks to be close to giving way to a coming breakout.
S&P 500 Index
Source: TradingView
Seasonality trends have proven accurate thus far in 2025
As shown below, the early-year consolidation looks to have played out nearly exactly how post-Election year tendencies had suggested might be the case heading into 2025.
This was followed by an above-average bounce in Stock indices which has carried prices higher into early June.
As this seasonality chart shows below, regardless if the Incumbent party wins or loses, June tends to normally be a difficult month, performance-wise.
While my near-term analysis still suggests that a push to possibly test all-time highs might happen this week, I’m skeptical that this is immediately exceeded without some stalling out.
Following some “backing and filling” into late June, which might allow for a bottom near June Expiration, with the key date range being 6/18-20, and 6/23, a sharp push back to new all-time highs is likely.
This could happen in both Equities and also Cryptocurrencies, and the period near June expiration looks particularly important this year from a timing standpoint.
Daily June Seasonality trajectory suggests the first and last weeks of June are typically better in post-Election years
Given the normal seasonality of June in post-election years, it appears that the first week tends to be quite good for June before some consolidation starts to get underway.
While markets have not shown proof that a selloff is approaching, the period for June when this might make sense falls between 6/9-6/23, or slightly more than one-week’s time.
In the short run, any near-term breakout above May highs should carry SPX up to between 6025-6150 while QQQ might approach 540. Thereafter, it’s important to watch carefully for any possibility of trend reversal, which could start as early as next Monday.
While it’s difficult to weigh in negatively on the possibility of any selloff getting underway without proof, this seasonality chart below should be watched for evidence that prices might start to stall out upon nearing all-time highs later this week.
Silver’s bullish breakout has helped SLV hit new highs for 2025
As shown below Silver has followed suit on the breakout seen in Gold and arguably should help the metal begin to “Play catchup” with Gold in the weeks ahead.
Monday’s close at $31.59 for the Ishares Silver Trust (SLV) was very bullish technically, occurring on the highest volume since early April.
This represents a bullish breakout regardless if last October’s (10/22/24) peaks of $31.80 have not been taken out yet.
This should allow for a push up to $34 initially, followed by $35.80 in the near term, technically.
My target for Silver lies in the low $40’s, technically, and likely could happen between now and late August 2025. SLV, AGQ, SILJ all look like appealing ways to possibly participate in a rally in Silver in the months ahead.
iShares Silver Trust
Copper’s breakout also bodes well for the strength to test this year’s highs
Copper is also making its move after the 5/23 breakout experienced minor consolidation in the last week, but is now up nearly 5% today (COMEX Copper Futures).
This is a very bullish technical move which should allow Copper to push up to test and exceed March 2025 highs near $5.40/lb. FCX (Freeport McMoran), which is heavily tied to Copper, is also making its own breakout today, and should move higher technically in the weeks ahead.
As shown on this daily chart, Monday’s move proved to be quite bullish technically, exceeding late May highs and rising to the highest levels since April.
This directly followed the 5/23/25 breakout in Copper futures, and my view is that this leads Copper higher in the months to come.
Vehicles outside of FCX that allow for exposure to Copper in the ETF market include COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF) and CPER (US Copper Fund).
Copper Future
