Short-term trend still bullish, but might reach short-term peak into early next week Array ( [cookie] => 596a25-805399-724db3-06fc84-1cfaa6 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208285 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
Note: I will be out of the office next week and will not be publishing daily technical strategy notes or videos.
Short-term trends in US Equities remain bullish but are nearing initial levels which might lead to a slowdown in this rally following a 15% rally in SPX over the last 17 trading days from 4/7 lows (almost 1% on average per day). While momentum is not technically overbought, I suspect that it might prove difficult technically for US Equities to continue trending higher above late March highs near SPX-5800 without some minor consolidation. While some backing and filling” could happen in May, I don’t suspect that April lows will be breached and undercut. Thus, our April low should represent the possible low for the year, given the ongoing subdued levels of sentiment, while Technology has begun to exhibit stellar leadership lately. While trends remain positive, I expect that the road likely gets a bit tougher from here over the next month before beginning a more sturdy uptrend. Overall, I expect that risk assets remain positive and will favor rallies back to new all-time highs this coming fall. Furthermore, pullbacks in Equity indices, if and when they begin in May, should be seen as buyable at higher levels than April lows.
Following gains of nearly 1% on average per day since the 4/7 lows, there are initial signs that a period of consolidation should be approaching in May. While momentum is not technically overbought per RSI readings on daily charts (and certainly not weekly nor monthly), the percentage of SPX stocks above their 20-day moving average has now eclipsed 80%, which certainly has occasionally marked minor peaks similar to February 2025, December 2024, August 2024, and July 2024, among others.


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