Last week’s follow-through was critical towards helping Equities achieve some technical improvement in structure following the two back-to-back weeks of solid market breadth seen since the 4/7/25 low. Short-term trends turned bullish, and daily momentum turned higher last week. Structurally, both SPX and QQQ have exceeded downtrends from mid-February peaks and have recouped prior March lows. Moreover, sentiment still seems quite uneasy given no material progress on tariff negotiation, which some investors are waiting on before joining the rally. Unfortunately, I’m not certain that this week will bring about any meaningful consolidation given the lack of DeMark-based exhaustion coupled with cycles still pressing higher in the short run. Overall, I expect that earnings beats out of this week’s Magnificent 7 earnings could have a further hand in helping trends make additional progress. Many of these have shaped up quite nicely technically, and I’ll be discussing these for most of this week. The bottom line is that trends are bullish despite the negative weekly momentum. Additional upside headway into May looks likely without too much resistance.
As shown below, SPX recovered its early Monday weakness to finish near the highs of the session. While 5550 was briefly exceeded, I think it’s right to expect a push up to 5650-5700 at this point into mid-to-late May before much resistance. This added “room” on the upside comes after having scoured SPX cycles along with the technical structure of Magnificent 7 in recent days. This also gels with the daily cycle composite, which looks to have bottomed in April and seems to push higher into June as part of a larger rally into August.
Key short-term areas of importance lie near Monday’s intra-day highs just above 5553, while 5469 is key on the downside. A break on either side should lead to follow-through, with a bias towards pushing higher above 5600.
Market breadth arguably should slowly but steadily begin to improve on a long-term basis along with momentum as Stock indices press higher. Note, any break of the uptrend from early April is not expected and would change this projection.
S&P 500 Index
SPX cycle seems to favor gains into August
The two-cycle composites I’ve focused on this year for daily chart projections for SPX showed bottoms for March and then April, consecutively.
This second cycle composite is one I’m highlighting below, as it bottoms in April before pushing sharply higher into this Fall, with August being an important month for a potential inflection point.
As shown below, June also could see stock indices pull back, but I suspect this happens from higher levels.
Overall, when combining daily cycle composites for SPX along with stocks like AAPL and NVDA to gain confidence in a potential path for US Equities in the months to come, all the daily composites have a bullish projection from April into fall of this year.
Thereafter, it gets a bit trickier, with some peaking in August while others seem to top out in October. However, between now and August, only the month of June stands out as being a possible month for consolidation using these specific projection methods.
Overall, while the intermediate-term momentum certainly requires some improvement before more stocks will begin showing attractive setups and appealing risk/reward characteristics, it looks right to position for gains in the months ahead, even if June proves to be choppy.
SPX Cycle
AAPL daily cycle also seems to have bottomed
The AAPL daily composite showed weakness starting in early February which then looks to have bottomed in mid-April and pushes higher into June.
I feel like this is an important cycle composite to “keep handy” given that AAPL remains a very high percentage weight within SPX along with QQQ.
In this composite below, AAPL’s possible cycle path in the months ahead seems to gel with the bullish trajectory forecast in the SPX cycle composite.
Both show sharp gains during this period into June without much trouble. Thereafter, the back half of the year looks a bit trickier, showing a possible peak in October.
Note that the SPX weekly cycle composite, which I posted back in January, also showed weakness in Q4 after bottoming in Spring 2025. (The Ferrera cycle composite.)
Interestingly enough, both daily and weekly cycle composites of AAPL, along with NVDA (not shown), show strength between April and Fall of 2025. Thereafter, the weekly charts peak out and trend down into Spring of 2026.
For now, it’s right to focus on the daily cycle composite of AAPL as it shows a clear rally which might take the stock higher in the months ahead. My technical projections show AAPL likely rising up to $225-$226 which might have importance.
On the downside, it’s important that AAPL not undercut $189.81, (last Monday’s lows) which are not expected to be challenged in this bullish view.
AAPL Daily Cycle
Microsoft has pushed higher to test an important area ahead of earnings
MSFT’s progress over the last couple of weeks looks quite positive, as it has quickly moved higher to test the area that held back on 4/14/25 following four out of the last five days of sharp gains.
As shown below, the area between $394.65-$396.36 represents both the mid-April peak along with the high made in late March 2025.
However, in addition, the entire “neckline” of the former large reversal pattern of 2024 (arguably starting January 2024) intersects right near this same area.
To be specific, the two former lows from both April and August 2024 made lows between $385-$388. Reclaiming mid-April peaks in the days ahead after earnings would represent a successful move back into this former base which had broken down last month (March 2025)
I feel that MSFT is an appealing risk/reward given that it lies roughly 17% from all-time highs made last Summer. The fact that MSFT has gained ground to an important area of resistance is important as a good earnings report could serve as the technical catalyst for this to push higher above $400.
My initial targeted resistance for MSFT lies between $410-$414 and could be important on any breakout this week as being the first significant area of resistance on gains into May. While not expected, any break of last Monday’s lows of $355.67 are not expected, and would change the technical picture to more negative.
Microsoft Corp – MSFT
