SPY looks close to bottoming vs. TLT

Note: There will be no video tonight due to travel commitments.

Near-term Equity index trends remain under pressure despite the brief bounce attempt near mid-March lows. While it’s difficult to call for a low in Equities, most technical indicators seem to suggest lows are quite close and should happen in the month of April. Ideally, the mid-March bottom and subsequent retest have brought about a bottoming process vs. a meaningful bottom. Thus, while minor new lows are possible into mid-April, the risk/reward is quite favorable for US Equities at a time when most have chosen to reduce exposure and/or favor European or Emerging market equities. Overall, whether one decides to stick with US Technology or not depends on one’s own time horizon and timeframe. In the short run (meaning 2-3 weeks), it’s certainly possible and even likely that European and Emerging markets, along with Defensive sectors and Precious metals, can outperform the US Equity market. However, for those with longer timeframes, it looks compelling to consider the exposure in US sectors like Financials, Industrials, Discretionary, and Technology, despite the recent setback. Patience looks necessary, but ultimately, the risk/reward is favorable, and I am skeptical that this recent pullback means that a bear market is imminent or that a recession is right around the corner.

Despite the ability to hold mid-March lows as a positive for US Equities, momentum and breadth remain quite negative. Moreover, neither SPX nor QQQ have made sufficient structural progress off the lows along with a subsequent breadth thrust (like directly following 3/13) to give much credence to this being low. Pattern-wise, yet another retest and possible break of these lows is certainly quite possible this week. Such a move would undercut SPX 5500 (albeit briefly) and help to complete an Elliott-style 5-wave decline, which could then help to mark a legitimate trading low.

Understandably, market participants are eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s announcement on tariffs which might bring some clarity to the situation which markets could then work around.

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