Is Momentum really Dead? Don’t bet on it

Note: There will be no video tonight due to technical difficulties.

Recent selling pressure should be nearly complete following the seven-day downdraft since 2/19.  Short-term momentum has gotten oversold, and many key large-cap Tech stocks look to be in/near support. Furthermore, Treasury yields and the US Dollar have been breaking down sharply, and I don’t see the correlation between Treasuries and Equities reversing anytime soon.  Moreover, sentiment has continued to grow more and more negative, given the constant rhetoric regarding tariff uncertainty, and the larger intermediate-term uptrends for SPX remain very much intact. Overall, if Friday’s intra-day lows are broken early next week as Tariffs are scheduled to go into effect, this might prolong the decline a bit longer. However, I don’t see January lows being broken in SPX, and the risk/reward looks technically excellent heading into March, given the environment of uncertainty and fear in a US Equity market that just made new all-time highs just seven trading days ago.

SPX lows should be near as February comes to a close

Despite the late-day surge on Friday, I’m unwilling to make the call that a low is officially in place, and it’s important to see some degree of stabilization in stock prices early next week heading into a time of possible tariffs.

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