Here are the Technical warning signs to look out for Array ( [cookie] => edc830-83030f-ddebf6-0a1db7-85a9c2 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 143917 [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
The post-holiday selling in US Equities during this shortened week seems to be shaking the confidence of many investors despite the lack of any material decline for the stock market. VIX and Japanese yen did continue to trade higher on Wednesday, while yields have made a vicious two-day decline that has been much greater than what’s happened in recent weeks. As discussed last week, five sectors rose to make new all-time high monthly closes, and despite Technology waning a bit, there hasn’t been any material breakdown. Given that market breadth remains in good shape and Equal-weighted SPX has recently pushed back to new all-time high territory, I’m still inclined to expect a possible SPX rally back to new highs and don’t feel that this week’s slump represents any major selloff. If/when bullish price action happens into mid-month, there might be a technical case for weakening into October. However, I’m skeptical at this time that this early weak consolidation leads to any real broad-based market weakness.
Despite some signs of risk-off type behavior in other asset classes outside of Equities that have exhibited some above-average volatility of late, the actual Equity selling pressure proved far more muted on Wednesday than what was seen on Tuesday. Trends and momentum from early August lows remain in “pretty good” shape with not much deterioration.
While this early week decline has been a bit unsettling for market bulls and has been cited by the bears as the “start” of some larger volatility for Equities, I just don’t see that yet from my work. As I discussed in Flash Insights this afternoon (kindly review if you missed this) a few option-related trades very well could have helped to exacerbate Tuesday’s decline, as opposed to this representing any meaningful fundamental shift for US risk assets.


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