Cycles, seasonality & falling bond yields should lead SPX back to new highs into mid-July Array ( [cookie] => ed3095-392620-288b54-6c98d0-604021 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 148708 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
S&P and QQQ have largely been treading water in recent weeks to finish out the quarter on a positive note, while Equal-weighted S&P 500 finished down for 2Q 2024 as nine sectors lost ground and finished negative. However, given the high percentage of Russell 3k names above their respective 200-day moving average, some minor losses in a largely sideways pattern doesn’t seem to have much negative weight heading into Q3. Given that economic data continues to miss expectations, Treasury yields look to have begun their pullback to test December 2023 lows and US Dollar should be fast approaching in this regard. Overall, while I respect the divergences present in the US stock market, there hasn’t been evidence of any true technical deterioration, and sentiment remains too subdued at a time when seasonality and cycles still show an upward trajectory. I expect the first part of July to lead back to new all-time highs, and suspect that a broad-based rally should be forthcoming.
As mentioned above, the pattern in recent weeks has been largely range-bound for SPX as well as QQQ at a time that Technology is largely still carrying most of the load for US stocks.
Friday’s weakness doesn’t seem too negative given that end of quarter positioning seemed to be a factor that helped bond yields lift despite some ongoing weakness in economic activity.


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