Higher rates should prove temporary headwind only for Equities

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The relentless push higher in rates continues to be an important factor that’s spooking the stock market, preventing a more material bounce off the lows.  These next few days will be important to ascertain the Treasury funding levels and the possibility of Powell to produce a more dovish message given that 50 bps of rate cuts have already been removed from the market.  Trends remain bullish from 4/19 lows, yet some backing and filling is certainly possible if/when rates push higher in the short run before these both reverse.  Pullbacks should create a very favorable risk/reward opportunity for Equities into mid-May but some relief on this recent spike in rates is thought essential for Equities to continue higher.

Tuesday’s Employment cost index “beat” was thought to be important for why rates began to shoot up dramatically in the US on Tuesday.  This had a ripple effect on Equities and became more pronounced as the day wore on.  $TNX finished at 4.686%, higher by .072 bps, while the 2-year yield finished above the psychologically important 5.00% threshold at 5.039%.

Overall, I don’t sense that rates have more to go on the upside, given current bearish positioning for Treasuries, n...
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