Thu, July 18, 2024 | 6:54PM ET

Super Granny-Shot & Super SMID Technicals - July 2024

Name: FS Insight
Price range: $$$

Mark L. Newton, CMT ^AC

Head of Technical Strategy

Super Granny-Shot & Super SMID Technicals - July 2024

Below are the technical writeups for this month’s Super Granny Shot and Super SMID Granny Shot selections, listed in no particular order:

Super Granny-Shot Technicals

Amazon Inc (AMZN – $183.75)

Successful breakout above 2021 highs helps to keep AMZN in good shape technically speaking

Two weeks of consolidation post breakout to new all-time highs makes this attractive to buy dips with Ample support near former April-May highs at $180-185

Barring a move back lower under $178 on a weekly close, minor consolidation makes AMZN attractive from a risk-reward standpoint

Rally back to $212 looks possible initially and would require a weekly close back under $166 to avoid this stock

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL – $177.69)

GOOGL remains one of the more technically attractive names within the “Magnificent 7” following its 16% rally after it broke back out to new all-time highs in April.

Its pullback over the last three out of four trading days has brought the stock near meaningful uptrend line support where this should stabilize (176-182)

DeMark’s counter-trend exhaustion indicators suggest another 6-8 weeks of gains might be possible before any real consolidation gets underway.

Rally above initial upside resistance $192 should lead to $199 without much trouble. Furthermore, intermediate-term targets based on the High to low range from 2021 projects up to $220-$225.

Near-term weakness should be held near initial support at $176. However, structural intermediate-term support lies at $154, and until breached, any larger pullback in GOOGL in the months ahead would be thought to make this stock more technically appealing.

Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON – $305.67)

Minor consolidation since February looks complete given this past week’s push up to multi-week highs

Movement back to new all-time highs appears underway and little resistance above $330 until near $376

The consolidation from early this year remains part of an ongoing uptrend, and now looks to be giving way to re-acceleration back to new highs. AXON remains quite bullish technically.

Upside targets lie near 330 initially and then 345 on gains into August

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX – $488.12)

Push back to new highs into July helps to resolve the one-month consolidation as part of VRTX’s ongoing uptrend

Despite overbought conditions, VRTX shows no evidence of any trend deterioration and has managed to show improving technical follow-through despite Healthcare having underperformed SPX in recent months.

VRTX has shown some of the best performance of any of the 64 members within the SPDR S&P Healthcare ETF (XLV) having returned 24.05% over the last three months, making this the 5^th best performer of all 64 names.

Upside resistance lies initially at $522-523 and movement above this level should lead to $559

S&P Global Inc (SPGI – $484.69)

SPGI is in the process of pushing back to new all-time highs this week, exceeding former peaks made back in 2021 at $484.21.

While momentum is short-term stretched, the technical structure has improved materially with this week’s breakout.

Rallies to $520-$525 look possible in the near-term, and following consolidation, a push up to $550 with intermediate-term targets near $607 can’t be ruled out.

Only weekly closes back down under $407 would serve to postpone its rally, and any near-term consolidation after this sharp breakout should offer attractive risk/reward opportunities to buy dips near $461, which approximates highs made in early 2024.

Super SMID Granny Shot Technicals

TopBuild Corp (BLD – $448.83)

BLD is one of the more attractive of the Homebuilder names maintaining short-term and intermediate-term bullish uptrends.

Its push back to new all-time highs over the last two weeks follows a three-month period of mild consolidation that failed to do much technical damage.

Interest rates pulling back sharply across the curve looks to be positive for Homebuilders, and this remains the top-ranked technical stock across the Home building and construction names within Granny Shots.

Upside targets could materialize near $528, representing the 1.618x projection of BLD’s rally from 2018 into November 2021, when measured from November 2022 lows.

Agilysis Inc (AGYS – $109.93)

Breakout of the 15-month Cup and Handle pattern on heavy volume helped AGYS push back to new all-time highs two months ago which was very constructive for its larger pattern.

Short-term breakout last week of May highs has helped near-term acceleration continue, and weekly momentum indicators are not yet overbought

Short-term technical targets lie near $118-120 while intermediate-term projections lie at $130

Volume spiked to help confirm this technical progress in May, and the act of having rallied back to new all-time highs makes this quite attractive.

FormFactor Inc (FORM – $56.50)

FORM’s May 2024 rally over 2021 peaks has helped this to accelerate and keeps the technical structure quite bullish on an intermediate-term basis.

Despite momentum having reached overbought levels, no evidence of any technical deterioration has appeared in recent weeks. FORM continues to move higher in a stair-stepping fashion since May’s breakout and volume has been supportive of gains.

Movement up to $67 looks initially likely and then pullbacks should make this attractive for intermediate-term gains to $85.

From an Elliott perspective, the entire 2021-2022 decline appeared like an ABC-type corrective pattern before the push back to new highs. Given that the initial rally from 2012-2021 lasted nine years, even a 38.2% time-based alternative retracement of this first rally should carry FORM higher into 2025.

Applovin Corp (APP – $80.93)

Minor consolidation since May looks to be giving way to an upside breakout given the progress of the last couple weeks.

Movement back over $88.50 should have little resistance until $93 and then a push back to challenge all-time highs from 2021 just over $116 looks possible.

Steep gains over the last 18 months have helped APP recover more than 60% of its former losses on relatively higher than average volume, particularly in 2024.

Given that minor consolidation from May has helped to lessen APP’s overbought status, a push back to new 2024 highs should help this intermediate-term rally continue.

Bancorp Inc (TBBK – $48.03)

TBBK has just begun to accelerate back to new all-time highs given a breakout in Regional Banks this past week.

The long-term structure looks quite appealing given a 2023 breakout above its 2007 peaks followed by choppy consolidation into 2024. The recent push higher in the last few weeks has helped to jumpstart TBBK’s intermediate-term momentum and can allow for a push to the high-$50s

Despite daily momentum being overbought, the act of its volatile swings since 2022 have helped monthly momentum stay neutral, not overbought, despite this past month’s surge to new highs.

TBBK’s pattern over the last 20 years remains quite attractive technically and should allow for further intermediate-term gains into late August/early September with initial targets found near $58.

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Mark L. Newton, CMT, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships. Neither I, nor a member of my household is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is/are the subject of this research report. There is a possibility that we will from time to time have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

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