NVDA, MSFT outperformance will hopefully start to broaden out Array ( [cookie] => 092064-dd9f98-b8bba0-d44388-032b69 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 565830 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
SPX and QQQ at new all-time high territory has caused some concern to those who study how much Technology has dominated in recent weeks to the detriment of many other sectors. As discussed, breadth had begun to wane sharply in January and both the US Dollar and Treasury yields had begun to bounce back higher. Monday showed some necessary mean reversion to the recent “Market Thinness” as Transports and Small-caps snapped back sharply. However, until breadth can snap back in an even more robust fashion, it does give some concern to how much Stock indices can rally without consolidation. Gann’s Mass Pressure chart for 2024 shows weakness starting later this week into mid-February.
To say this year has proven strange thus far is not that big of a stretch. The market is back at new highs but yet the first 5 days of January along with the Santa Claus rally period were both negative. SPX and QQQ have pushed back to new highs while AAPL and IWM have lagged substantially. Russell 2k index certainly did not follow SPX back to new highs. IWM was lower by more than 20% off all-time highs until Monday’s gains.
Moreover, in the last rolling 1 month period, Consumer Discretionary, REITS, Utilities, Materials and Energy have all lost more than 2%. This certainly doesn’t sound like a market which has pushed back to new high territory.
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Thomas J. Lee
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