Tesla cycle composite shows potential weakness into February

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The chart in this report is only accessible to members

Short-term US Equity Market lows seem close, and I expect that a short-term bottom happens in US Equities this week based on a combination of oversold breadth, worsening sentiment, and a drying up in selling in some of the formerly hardest hit sectors.   

However, the extent of this past month’s selling has taken a toll on both momentum and breadth, which could allow volatility to persist over the next 6-8 weeks despite the normal seasonal tailwinds this time of year.  Treasury yields as well as US Dollar should be peaking out in the month of November, and proof of this should serve as a noticeable boost for Equities.

Of the various metrics I laid out last week for why Equities could bottom, a few things remain problematic as to why lows might not already be in place but should be close.

Counter-trend exhaustion per DeMark indicators has not yet materialized in SPY and QQQ but is in place on Equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF ($RSP).  While another stab at lows for Equities could happen this week, it should prove short-lived and represent meaningful short-term support.  (Overall, DeMark signals do not need to be present for US Equity indices to bottom out.  However, it would add to the probability of a mo...
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