Technically speaking, a “Good likelihood” that Equity lows are In

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US Equity markets look to be bottoming in the historic “bear-market killer” month of October following oversold conditions during a time of seasonal tailwinds and bearish sentiment.  The effect of the attack on Israel resulting in yields rolling over looks important and Equities are responding to this more than the perceived Israeli retaliation.   SPX having exceeded 4336 should lead prices higher in October

While some might see this as “jumping the gun”, I do feel like there’s a good likelihood that Equity market lows could be in place after the constructive bounce in recent days. 

Simply stated, the act of selling off sharply to near key technical levels that makes momentum and breadth reach oversold levels while sentiment grows more bearish often translates into attractive opportunities for Equities.

As discussed most of last week, the following points seem most relevant for why Stocks could be bottoming:

Insufficient evidence of the Broad-based recovery from May 2023 having been derailed Sentiment has gotten a lot more pessimistic and polls like AAII, and Fear and Greed turned quite negative over the past week Technology continues to show better relative returns in the short run vs. SPX and remains upward...
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