September unlikely to be as poor for US Equities as many expect

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Markets have entered the window for a potential low; Yet, price action requires some improvement before being able to declare that short-term lows “are in”.  It’s still tough to rule out weakness over the next week.  However, it’s thought that pullbacks will make SPX and QQQ attractive before kicking off the first half of September with a rally.

At present, the advance in Treasury yields to kick off the new week directly coincided with SPX rallying.  Elliott patterns could allow for 4.10-4.15% in yield-based support for TNX before a turn back higher.

If yields begin to move back to new monthly highs (although I expect any such move to prove short-lived) that would likely spook US Equities, and it’s important not to rule that out just yet.

Overall, Monday showed 1%+ gains for Technology, Communication Services, and Financials, while both Discretionary, Materials and Industrials finished up over +0.80% on the day in Equal-weighted terms.

As daily SPX charts show below, 4458.30 could prove important in the days ahead.  This lines up with the existing downtrend from late July along with representing last week’s intra-week high, made on Thursday.

I expect that if this leve...
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