Acceleration of Selling growing closer to meaningful targets

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US Equity markets likely have another 1-2 weeks of possible losses before a meaningful low;  A bottoming post Jackson Hole makes sense from a timing standpoint that could line up with exhaustion signals for Treasuries and Equities.

Overall, what started out as a mild, orderly decline has begun to pick up steam as SPX and QQQ both broke support.  A couple key points worth noting:

  • 4300-4330 stands out as the most probable area for SPX to bottom in the short-run.  This lines up with Fibonacci targets from the May-July rally along with Gann-based targets from the 7/27 peak.  Under 4300, while not expected, would cause a brief but severe move to 4200, which is the 50% retracement area of the entire rally off March lows and quite important.
  • DeMark-based exhaustion for SPX and QQQ on daily charts suggests another week of possible weakness, and weekly TYX charts show a similar timeframe for possible peaks in 30-Year Treasury yields.  Both of these could potentially line up by end of August for a low in both Stocks and bonds
Sentiment polls have turned neutral from bullish readings from the end of July.  Note, these haven’t yet gotten bearish, and that might need to happen ahead of any...
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