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The video in this report is only accessible to members

The near-term pattern failed to show much deterioration, despite the uber-hawkishness of Powell’s comments Tuesday. While SPX did pullback sharply, this was a “drop in the bucket” compared to the rally which had carried SPX 150 points higher since Thursday’s lows.

Erasing half of this prior bounce is insufficient to think trends are turning bearish. However, sentiment is clearly turning more and more negative, in my view. Investors seem to be hyper focused on the economy more than ever, despite the futility of being able to successfully use this data to forecast price action.

Rates showed some meaningful evidence of stalling out despite Powell’s commentary having been called quite hawkish. Momentum has begun to wane on long-term Treasury yields and yields are 10-12bps lower than last week, despite Treasury sentiment having worsened. I expect rates to peak out next week and begin turning back lower.

Defensive groups like Utilities and REITS were down more than Technology on Tuesday. While all 11 sectors were negative on the day, and volume failed to come in strongly negative enough to suggest an immediate bottom, I feel this happens into next week.

Specifically with regards to price action, the chart below highlights how...
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