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The choppy near-term consolidation over the last week remains ongoing as February was officially closed out with SPX lower by nearly -2.5%.  Yet, downside likely should be contained near 3920-30, an important area of support which could represent a bottom to this February decline.

Elliott wave structure still argues for a potential “final’ pullback to test and break last Friday’s lows;  However, this would be quite constructive to buy dips for a March rally.  Any rally back over 4060 suggests a move back to test and exceed February highs.

Yields largely have stalled out with Treasuries seeing firm “bids” at the 4% level.  A break under 3.84% in early March is expected which should drive an SPX rally back to test and exceed February highs.

Despite this churning, SPX largely has made no progress over the last couple weeks.  However, the lack of declining further with any real downward thrust is considered bullish when Mid-Caps and Small-caps have been acting quite well.

Sectors like Industrials have broken out vs. SPX in equal-weighted terms.  Meanwhile Utilities have broken down to close out February with the 2nd worst performance of any major sector outside of Energy.  Despite some min...

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