Upticks - January 2023

Happy New Year to All!

Update

2023 has gotten underway with a far more robust rally than many were expecting to kick off the new year.  Some of this has been difficult to see given Technology’s underperformance and its weighting in the major indices.  Sectors like Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Real Estate and Materials are all up more than 5% to start the year, but yet US remains a relative laggard to Europe and most of Asia.

S&P and NASDAQ remain in technical downtrends from this time last year, cycles still show the chance for consolidation, and Technology continues to lag other sectors.  Yet a few major positives have certainly cropped up with such broad-based leadership from other sectors.  Additionally, the prospects of ongoing negative earnings revisions seem to have kept the most fundamentally oriented on the sidelines, despite some evidence of inflation cooling.  Finally, the first half seasonality in pre-election years tends to be one of the best periods of the four-year Presidential cycle, which might make near-term cyclical weakness prove short-lived.

Overall, I expect 2023 to be a much better year than last year.  I’ll hold off on discussing sector favorites and targets until my Annual Outlook webinar which takes pla...
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