Tuesday’s gains likely jumpstarted the move to 4120

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*No video today, please see my CNBC appearance this evening*

Following nearly two weeks of sideways churning, Tuesday’s minor breakout likely jumpstarts the short-term seasonal boost into early December.  While defensive groups largely outperformed over the last week, Tuesday’s gains on bullish breadth helped SPX finish at new multi-day highs, breaking a minor consolidation pattern.  Wave structure, seasonality and short-term cycles all point towards higher prices into/post-Thanksgiving which could stretch up into early December before serious resistance sets in.   Overall, this remains a short-term uptrend as part of an intermediate-term downtrend; However, above 4015 in S&P Futures has little to no real resistance until 4120 area which would allow for wave equality and signals strong resistance.

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Daily SPX charts show why 4120 is more important than the 200-day moving average (m.a.)

One of the common misconceptions revolves around the use of the 200-day moving average and whether that’s as useful as some claim it to be.  On both prior rallies, SPX was able to successfully regain its 200-day m.a. into both late March and mid-August before seeing rallies fail.  Thus, while some feel that technicians “always” look at the...
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