US still much more attractive than Europe Array ( [cookie] => 7584e7-ae0e4f-6a2286-e059cf-305f08 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 591083 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
The selling continues directly following the advance in Treasury yields, and US major benchmark indices have all fallen now to within striking distance of June lows. My thinking is that there’s a good likelihood of a retest of lows in QQQ, while SPX gets close, before rebounds happen starting the first week of October. When viewing QQQ below, a few relevant points to make technically: First, DeMark exhaustion signals on daily charts likely could be triggered as early as next week. Second, timing on weekly TNX remains two weeks away from any peak and it’s likely necessary that these are in place before trying to buy dips. Third, cycle composites pinpoint 10/4-6 as likely providing an attractive turning point and would match the timing for a TNX turn. Fourth, sentiment is certainly growing close to extreme bearishness in AAII data, but arguably still not much capitulatory evidence in Equity markets despite Thursday’s abnormally high downside volume reading. Overall, markets are growing closer to a low and the risk/reward for shorts is growing sub-par heading into late September. Yet it remains prudent to await more evidence of price and time aligning which likely means buying dips is a couple weeks early.
Record Pessimism towards Europe- How long can this last?
Investors have shown nearly record Underweight positioning towards Europe in wake of the recent Energy crisis given the ongoing Russian/Ukraine war.
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