Yields to challenge monthly highs after strong Eco data

The stalling out in S&P post Non-Farm Payrolls data Friday shouldn’t have come as much surprise to those who are paying attention.  In recent weeks, markets have seemingly punished good news, while rewarded bad, and this all seems to point to a stock market which stands ready to reward an FOMC which might have to “take its foot off the gas” on evidence that inflation has begun to back off in recent weeks.  Technically, markets look to be at resistance, given signs of strong trendline resistance near late June highs, as well as important Ichimoku cloud resistance directly above.  SPX should be unlikely to exceed 3946 (much less 4000) before backing down to test 3741-3744 which was tested on three consecutive days heading into this week.   While July could prove choppy in the weeks ahead, it’s still more likely than not that a move down to new lows for 2022 happens into late July given evidence of rates turning back higher while the Dollar remains quite strong.  While I remain a buyer on weakness, it’s hard for me to have faith in this near-term recovery given lack of participation and weak upward breadth thrust thus far.  One should remain defensive over the next 2-3 weeks until this churning runs its course.

Rates should hold the key, and US 10-Year Treasury yields have broken out again   

While there remain quite a few intermediate-term positives that seem to favor Equity rallies into September (cycles, sentiment, Elliott-wave structure) this doesn’t imply a rally has to be instant, nor occur in a straight line.

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