The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

The four-day SPX rally has now quietly regained 5% just in the last three weeks, one of the longest uninterrupted rallies this year.  Near-term, prices are nearing key make-or-break levels that technically look likely to result in a stalling out/reversal in prices heading into next week.  This is expected technically given the lack of participation and/or breadth thrust seen by this recent bounce, illustrating that this rebound has not been nearly as broad-based as necessary.  Second, prices now lie near structural downtrends, and it’s thought that the recent outperformance out of Consumer Discretionary shouldn’t last if rates start to tick higher. 

The video in this report is only accessible to members

Ultimately, I don’t expect SPX 4000 is going to be exceeded in July, and even 6/28 peaks at 3946 could prove challenging to surpass heading into Friday’s important Jobs number.  Any decline on Friday 7/8 or Monday 7/11 that violates 3738 has little support until June lows at 3636.87.  This also might be breached for a final pullback into July 22-July 29, a time that’s important cyclically and also lines up with July’s FOMC meeting.

Key Technical Takeaways heading into Non-Farm Payrolls  

In the short run, there are â€...

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