The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Heading into the end of the month and quarter, we’re reminded that this has been the worst first six months of the year for US Equities since 1970, over 50 years ago. Only five other occasions saw declines of greater than 15% over the first six months, and all five turned higher into the back half of the year, with a median gain of +15%+.  However, the year that might show most similarity for investors is 1962, 60-years ago, appropriately nicknamed “The Kennedy Slide” when Equities fell 22.5% during the first six months of the year.  Overall, in the short-run, Equities don’t seem to be getting too much traction on bounce attempts ahead of the July 4th holiday.  While Friday should largely prove quiet now that June has run its course ahead of a long holiday weekend, it’s expected that Equities should follow-through lower to test and break June lows in the weeks to come, which might translate into a larger intermediate-term low sometime in July between 3505-3600.  As discussed Wednesday, I am expecting that 3636 is broken before 3946 is exceeded.  Thus, minor bounces pre-July 4th likely remain sellable.

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End of month performance data shows Energy, Discretionary, Materials weakening the most in June

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