Tech looks to be stabilizing briefly into “Big 5” Earnings Array ( [cookie] => 596a25-805399-724db3-06fc84-1cfaa6 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208285 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
Key Takeaways
- Monday’s reversal was a short—term positive on a 2-3 day basis, and could result in US indices bouncing. However, this should prove temporary only.
- “FAANG” likely should stabilize ahead of this week’s earnings.
- Commodity weakness could extend near-term and Energy ETF technical damage likely causes further near-term consolidation for Energy which should be buyable into May.
QQQ has now pulled back to within striking distance of March lows at a time when Technology’s “Big Five” are set to report earnings this week to the tune of roughly $340 billion dollars in revenues. Overall given a 10% decline in QQQ just in the last three weeks alone, I suspect the risk/reward for shorting QQQ so close to prior lows is likely sub-par. Markets seem to be nearing a level where a “minor” bounce could occur. However, for many investors, taking such a short-term perspective might not prove useful. Rather, it should be important to reemphasize that minor rallies should prove short-lived, anticipating a test of February lows into May. This would directly line up with my cycle composite forecasts, max near 183 before prices find support and start to bounce into the month of February. Bottom line, 335-336 stands out as being important on any bounce, while 318 will be key initially on declines. Under 318 could lead briefly to 301 or 282 into May/June timeframe before a meaningful low.


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